Analysts expect domestic chemical demand after the Spring Festival to be mixed

After the Spring Festival in 2021, the chemical market conditions in China and other regions in Asia celebrating festivals will be different from previous years.

Although China is about to usher in the Lunar New Year (February 11-17), companies and factories will resume operations sooner than expected after the Spring Festival, because considering the increasing number of coronavirus cases in the north, some cities and regions In January, the lockdown was implemented and millions of migrant workers were promoted to celebrate the New Year on the spot.

　　The problem is that the extent of the recovery in Asian plastic demand remains to be seen, because companies resume operations earlier than in the past few years. In previous years, Chinese factories would generally be closed for 2-4 weeks during the Spring Festival.

"Most small and medium-sizedplastic processors in China will gradually resume operations after February 26. As some workers will not return to their hometowns this year, demand may recover earlier than in previous years. The labor shortage this year may not be serious." ICIS senior analyst AmyYu said.

　　 This new trend of companies quickly resuming work after the Spring Festival is a good thing for the Chinese economy, which has expanded its manufacturing industry for 11 consecutive months, and for the entire Asian plastic demand.

"Last year, a lot of China's demand came from exports, especially epidemic-related supplies such as masks, laptops and home office screens," said Rhian O'Connor, senior analyst at ICIS. "As Europe and other Western countries have adopted blockade measures, Part of the demand may continue this year."

"Shopping patterns have changed, and online shopping is increasing. This is unlikely to change in the future, but it is conducive to packaging polymers (such as shrink film and stretch stretch film) and more durable products (such as polymers for electronic products). Development." O'Connor added.

　　 "Special applications like PP for syringes should benefit from vaccine demand. However, these still account for a small proportion of overall demand."

　　 Under the dual impact of the upcoming Spring Festival holiday and the recurrence of the epidemic, a slowdown in China's manufacturing activities in January is inevitable-reflected in its official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling from 51.9 in December to 51.3.

　　 The report stated that due to the impact of the epidemic on the demand situation, companies said that the growth of production and new orders has slowed down, while new export work has fallen again.

　　 "China's domestic demand should be frustrated in the first quarter. The recurrence of the epidemic in some areas restricts travel plans. This may affect sales during the Spring Festival holiday." O'Connor believes.