August 17 news
Recent international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. On August 14, China's refined oil products entered the fifth price adjustment window of the year. The spot price of diesel fluctuates with the trend of crude oil, currently in a high range within a one-year cycle. The average difference indicator shows a warning signal of stagnation and a bearish oscillation, requiring attention to subsequent crude oil trends and market reactions after the price adjustment.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-16) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-15) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -33.37 | -54.74 | + |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 44.28 | 86.41 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 71.24 | 64.09 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of average difference change symbols is (+, -, +), which belongs to a stagflation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is characterized by volatility. The reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent with those of the previous day. Specifically, the 5-day moving average and the 20-day moving average both rose compared to yesterday, while the 10-day moving average declined compared to yesterday—meeting the criteria for a volatile market. Moreover, the signals point to a bearish, volatile pattern indicative of impending stagnation. Considering the market situation, the earlier rise in international crude oil prices had driven up diesel prices; however, as crude oil prices subsequently fell and China’s refined oil pricing window opened, diesel prices have entered a phase of volatile adjustment.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Diesel prices in China are currently at the 4th level (mid-high) in the 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increases. If crude oil continues to show weakness, there will be pressure for prices to adjust downward.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. References for Industry Chain Associations
Upstream commodities in the diesel industry chain: fuel oil, crude oil; downstream commodities: methanol-diesel.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
