PVC: Ups and downs What kind of trouble is the spring market?

As soon as the horror is over, it seems that the air is full of the smell of spring, and there is a scene of spring blossoms everywhere. Also bathed in the warm atmosphere is our plastic market. Since the return of the holiday, our plastics market has been telling the word "rising" all the time, and all major types of raw materials are hitting their respective high points. Up to now, the mainstream of type 5 calcium carbide in East China is reported at 9,000-9200 CNY/ton, an increase of 1100-1120 CNY/ton from the previous month; the mainstream of type 5 calcium carbide in South China is at 8850-9060 CNY/ton, an increase of 870- from last month. 980 CNY/ton; 5 type calcium carbide materials in North China reported 8750-8900 CNY/ton, an increase of 900-1000 CNY/ton from the previous month. The following editor briefly talks about how to interpret the spring market of PVC from a few aspects?

Raw material calcium carbide: Recently, the energy consumption "dual control" has been further fermented in Inner Mongolia. The calcium carbide enterprises in Wuhai and Ordos have gradually reduced their operating loads or entered the maintenance phase ahead of schedule, prompting the overall supply and demand market to change from tight supply to short supply. Under the influence of the "dual control" policy, the shortage of calcium carbide supply will become more obvious in the short term. Supported by it, the price of calcium carbide will rise further.

Macroscopic view: The cold wave in Texas, the United States, is still being affected. Western Chemicals has restarted its Texas facility, and Vestolit, Mexico, which was affected by the force majeure of raw materials in the early stage, is also recovering. Shin-Etsu plans to restart its Foley, Texas. Bert’s PVC plant with an annual output of 1.45 million tons, but the listed companies are slow to restart, mainly affected by the supply of raw materials. The Formosa Plastics U.S. plant in Texas has not yet returned to normal, and the relevant force majeure of the affected PVC manufacturers is still effective.

Futures: Today's futures continue to open higher, driving the spot trend. The opening price of the V2105 contract was 8840, the highest price was 9190, the lowest price was 8770, and the closing price 9150 increased by 390 or 4.45%. Affected by this cold wave, PVC installations in the United States and Europe have encountered force majeure shutdowns, and some installations in Asia have also been shut down. The tight overseas supply has caused the market to continue to look at the quotations of Formosa Plastics in April. It is expected that in the short term, PVC futures will remain range-bound.

Supply side: Up to now, the operating rate of domestic PVC companies has maintained a high level, and the overall operating rate is about 83%. From the perspective of start-ups of various companies, most PVC production companies are doing well, and some companies have maintenance or maintenance plans, such as Guangdong Tosoh and Taishan Salinization. From the data point of view, the inventory accumulation of PVC manufacturers this year is not large, about half of the level of the same period last year. In the case of early pre-sales and low inventory levels of some PVC companies, there will be little pressure on PVC companies to ship in the short term.

Demand side: At present, the operating rate of downstream product companies has increased significantly, but due to the substantial increase in the cost of various raw materials, product prices have been forced to raise prices. The overall production order performance is generally average except for individual industries, and raw material purchases basically remain rigid. In terms of exports, the performance is good, and manufacturers have no pressure on shipments.

Overall: The shortage of supply is the key factor that promotes the market volatility in the second round. In addition, the cooperation of PVC futures also contributed to the volatility of the market. The current PVC market is supported by favorable factors such as cost and overseas, and the market outlook is still promising.