Gm corn is expected to spread faster... | China's pilot planting of genetically modified crops

 "Who will feed China?" That's the question Lester Brown, president of the Worldwatch Institute, asked in 1994. He predicts that China's grain production will fall 20 percent from 340 million tons in 1990 to 272 million tons in 2030, while the country's population will reach 1.6 billion. If it did not improve its diet, China would need to import 200-369 million tons of grain, equivalent to the global grain trade at the time. He predicted that China is highly likely to have a food crisis and may further trigger a global food crisis. However, with the joint efforts of the national agricultural researchers represented by Yuan Longping and the Chinese government, China's grain production has increased for 18 consecutive years from 2004 to 2021. In 2022, China's grain production reached 633 million tons (National Bureau of Statistics, 2022), while the population stabilized at 1.4 billion. As a result, China has achieved complete self-sufficiency in the supply of staple foods and proved to the international community with practical actions that the Chinese people can feed themselves.

China is heavily dependent on global feed grain supplies  

Who can feed China? Although China has successfully solved the problem of staple food security, the improvement of Chinese people's living standards has led to increased demand for meat, eggs, milk and oil. So a new challenge arises: "Who can feed China? In order to solve this problem and implement China's food security policy on limited arable land, China must import enough feed grains from the international market. The General Administration of Customs, PRC (GACC) reported that in the past five years (2018-2022), China imported more than 100 million tons of grain annually, with 165 million tons in 2021 alone (GACC, 2022). However, non-edible grains accounted for 89.2% of the total, of which soybeans accounted for 96.52 million tons, corn 28.35 million tons, barley 12.48 million tons, and sorghum 9.42 million tons (GACC, 2021). Domestic soybean and corn production in 2021 was 16.4 million tons and 272.55 million tons, respectively (National Bureau of Statistics, 2021). In addition, the production of barley and sorghum in 2018 was 960,000 tons and 2.91 million tons respectively (National Bureau of Statistics, 2021). The figures reflect China's heavy reliance on global trade in feed grains. Therefore, genetically modified crops may be an effective way to solve this problem.

Since the commercialization of GM crops in 1996, the global planted area has increased to 190.4 million hectares in 2019 (ISAAA, 2019). From 2013 to 2018, the four countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil) showed an average increase in pest resistant (IR) soybeans of 9.5 percent, compared with 1996 to 2018. The 12 countries (USA, Canada, South Africa, Argentina, Philippines, Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Viet Nam, Spain and Honduras) achieved an average yield increase of 16.5%. The average yield of corn and soybeans in the United States is about 40 percent higher than in China, and one of the main reasons for this may be the use of genetically modified technology.

China's national special program for the development of genetically modified organisms 

In order to develop new varieties of genetically modified crops, the Chinese government has invested significant financial resources. The National Major Project for the cultivation of new varieties of genetically modified organisms, commonly known as the "transgenic project", was launched in 2008 and will be implemented until 2020. As of August 31, 2020, the project has invested a total of 14.707 billion yuan, of which 9.771 billion yuan has been allocated by the central government.

With the support of the program, China has established a sound research and development system for GM breeding and a biosafety evaluation and monitoring system. As a result, China has now become one of the countries with the strongest research and development capacity for Gmos in the world. In addition, China has demonstrated its technical capacity for the continuous development of new GMO varieties by building a pyramid-shaped reserve of results at all stages of the production of new varieties.

The project has also led to the development of biotechnology companies, Such as DBNBC, Rfgene and Longping. In particular, the independent research and development of genetically modified soybean and corn varieties has made significant progress under the support of more than 10 years of scientific research accumulation and transgenic projects.

A pilot planting policy unique in the world 

In order to prepare for the commercial planting of genetically modified crops, China is the only country in the world that is gradually transitioning to the commercial planting of genetically modified crops through pilot planting programs every year. In accordance with the requirements of "respecting science, strictly regulating and orderly promoting the industrial application of biological breeding" put forward by the central government, the Ministry of Agriculture launched the pilot planting of genetically modified soybeans and corn in 2021. Pilot planting trials include: evaluating the performance of GM crops under large-scale production and application conditions, developing supporting planting methods and production technologies, designing management policies, and implementing market-oriented operation strategies. The main purpose of the pilot program is to define the responsibilities and boundaries of breeding enterprises, planting farmers and local agricultural and rural authorities. This ongoing process will also require adjusting public acceptance of GM crops.

At the beginning of the pilot planting program, a "three-year, three-step" implementation plan was formulated, including three phases. The test plots for pilot planting in 2021 are strictly controlled, with an area of about 1150 mu (1 ha =15 mu). By 2022, the program will cover some large-scale farmers, covering an area of about 80,000 acres. In 2023, taking into account the will of planting farmers and ecological conditions, the main producing areas are included in the pilot planting plan, and the planting scope is expanded to 20 counties in five provinces, reaching about 4 million mu, and the planting and seed production are planned for the second year, laying the foundation for future development and acceleration.

All domestic insect-resistant and herbicide-tolerant transgenic corn and soybean varieties with independent intellectual property rights and application prospects have been included in the pilot planting scope. These varieties have obtained safety certificates for the production and application of genetically modified organisms. In the process of pilot planting, the relevant rules and regulations are constantly revised and improved to meet the management requirements under conventional planting conditions in the future. In short, the pilot planting program aims to confirm the excellent characteristics of GM crops under large-scale production and application conditions, establish a management system and supporting production technology, and realize the vision of "farmers will plant, the government will manage, and enterprises will promote" to achieve conventional planting conditions.

Overall layout of pilot planting 

The pilot planting areas are strategically located in the southwest and northern regions of China, which were chosen for specific reasons. The southwestern region, especially Yunnan Province, was chosen because of the wide variety of pests in the region, including migratory pests such as aphids. The region provides ideal conditions for fully testing the insect resistance of GM crops and assessing their ecological benefits through pilot planting. In contrast, the northern region is a major producer of corn and soybeans. Pilot planting in this area can comprehensively test the yield increase and efficiency of genetically modified crops. By selecting these different regions, the pilot planting program aims to gather comprehensive data and insights on the performance and potential benefits of GM crops in different environments. This data will be critical to developing strategies that will ultimately lead to wider acceptance of GM crops.

The overall effect of three years of pilot planting of genetically modified crops 

The three-year pilot planting has achieved remarkable results. Monitoring results showed that the GM corn was more than 90 percent effective against lepidopteran pests, such as meadow leaf moths, exceeding the effectiveness of two insecticide sprays on conventional corn. The herbicidal efficiency of spraying Glyphosate on GM soybeans is usually above 95%, which is significantly better than the effect of spraying conventional herbicides twice. Planting GM corn and soybeans reduces the need for pest and weed control and reduces the frequency of farming. Therefore, simplified planting techniques, including less tillage and less stubble, have been developed and used. The average yield of transgenic corn and soybean can reach 8.9% and 8.8% respectively.

Commercial planting prospects after three years of pilot planting 

Due to the good planting efficiency of corn in China, it is expected that the promotion and adoption of GM corn will be faster. By 2024, the planting area of genetically modified corn can reach 10-15 million mu, and three years later, it will reach 80-10 million mu. At the same time, the planting scale of soybeans is expected to reach about 600,000 mu.

Brazil is the world's second largest producer of GM crops, and it has taken just five years since commercial production of GM corn and soybeans began in 2006 to reach 90% adoption.

If the adoption rate of GM corn and soybean reaches the expected level, China will plant 581 million mu of GM corn and 139 million mu of GM soybean.

This will have a profound impact on food production and marketing in China and around the world. First, China will become the third largest producer of GM crops, after the United States and Brazil. Secondly, it will greatly increase the global planting area of GM crops and have a positive impact on the commercial cultivation of GM crops worldwide. Thirdly, planting insect-resistant maize in Yunnan and Guangxi can effectively control the hazards of Armyworm, thereby reducing its northward migration. Finally, a 10% increase would increase corn production by 27.72 million tons and soybean production by 2.03 million tons. As a result, China will no longer import corn and reduce soybean imports, thereby contributing to global food security.