September 30th, according to reports
In September, China’s MIBK market staged a robust rally, with prices surging sharply throughout the month and posting a notable gain to reach a temporary peak. However, toward the end of the month, upward momentum weakened and prices edged lower, as both supply‑demand dynamics and cost‑support factors softened in tandem. Industry sentiment shifted, suggesting that the market is likely to see a pullback going forward. Overall, the price action reflected a pattern of “strong gains during the month, easing at month‑end, followed by a subsequent decline.”
From a monthly price trend perspective, the MIBK market price increase this month was quite significant. At the beginning of September, the average price of MIBK in China was around 10,300 CNY/ton. The market started to rise at the beginning of the month, and the trend continued to strengthen. By September 29, the reference price of the MIBK market in China had dropped back to 13,566.67 CNY/ton, with an overall monthly price increase of 31.72%. The main market in East China discussed prices within the range of 13,300-13,500 CNY/ton, including tax and self-pickup, but high-priced transactions were weak, and there were clear signs of softening.
In September, the MIBK market saw a significant upward trend, with the core drivers focusing on three dimensions: supply contraction, peak season demand boost, and rising market sentiment. On the supply side, earlier maintenance of MIBK plants in China and low operating loads led to a continuously tight supply of spot goods. The shortage of supply persisted from the beginning to the middle of the month, with traders holding back stock and supporting prices, driving the prices to rise continuously. At the same time, the traditional peak season of "Golden September" in the chemical industry arrived, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as coatings, inks, and adhesives steadily increased. The concentrated release of essential restocking demand effectively boosted the trading activity in the MIBK market, providing solid demand support for the price increase.
As we enter late September, the favorable factors that had been underpinning the market’s upward momentum have gradually faded, signaling a turning point and mounting downward pressure. On the cost side, upstream acetone prices have continued to weaken, putting overall market conditions under strain and steadily eroding the cost‑supportive effect on MIBK. Industry profit margins have begun to recover, reducing manufacturers’ willingness to hold firm on prices; some producers have even started offering discounts to accelerate sales and free up cash, pushing the market’s bargaining center slightly lower. On the demand side, downstream end‑use sectors have largely completed their restocking of essential inventories. At elevated price levels, end‑user purchasing has turned more cautious, with most firms opting for small, just‑in‑time orders. Market activity has gradually softened, and weak acceptance at higher price points is insufficient to sustain the current high‑price trend.
Supply-side pressures have also been gradually easing. As previously shut-down production units have resumed operations one after another, China’s MIBK market has seen a steady increase in operating rates, with spot supply steadily rising. The earlier tightness in available inventory has been effectively alleviated, and the market’s supply‑demand balance has shifted from a tight equilibrium to a more relaxed stance. Meanwhile, following a rapid price surge during the month, speculative sentiment has cooled, speculative restocking demand has subsided, and the market has returned to being driven by fundamentals, with high‑price bubbles gradually unwinding.
Overall, the MIBK market in September saw a significant increase due to peak season demand and supply contraction. However, by the end of the month, all fundamental positives had dissipated, with weak cost support, insufficient demand, and a steady recovery in supply all becoming evident. It is expected that the Chinese MIBK market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, entering an overall correction phase, with prices likely to steadily decline and the room for a drop from high levels gradually opening up. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to upstream raw material price fluctuations, changes in the operation of Chinese facilities, and the sustainability of peak season demand from downstream end-users, to grasp the rhythm and extent of the market correction.
