INEOS Chairman Jim Ratcliffe has renewed his warning that Europe’s chemical industry is being undermined by low-priced imports from China. In an open letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he argued that China’s excess chemical capacity is entering Europe at unsustainable prices and accelerating the closure risk for local producers. According to reports, INEOS also pointed to research by Oxford Economics showing a significant rise in Chinese chemical imports into Europe since 2019.
The significance of the letter lies less in the accusation itself and more in the way the issue is being framed. European chemical producers are no longer treating import pressure as a normal trade-cycle problem; they are presenting it as an industrial-security issue. For several years, the main explanation for Europe’s chemical weakness was high energy cost. That remains true, but it is no longer the whole story. The region is now dealing with a more complex mix of expensive power, carbon costs, weak downstream demand, stricter regulation and rising import competition.
INEOS’s reference to its Project One ethylene investment in Antwerp is important. The project, valued at around €4 billion, has been positioned by the company as a major low-carbon ethylene asset in Europe. Yet the commercial challenge is clear: low-carbon production does not automatically create pricing power if buyers remain primarily price-driven. Europe wants its industry to decarbonize, but the market does not always reward greener local production with a sufficient premium.
From a global perspective, the issue should not be reduced to a simple “China versus Europe” story. China has added large volumes of chemical capacity in recent years, and some products have clearly moved into an export-led phase. But Europe’s weakness also reflects its own structural problems, including high energy exposure, shrinking downstream manufacturing and limited cost flexibility. Chinese supply has intensified the pressure, but it did not create all of Europe’s problems.
The likely outcome is a more defensive European policy environment. Anti-dumping cases, carbon-related border measures and targeted industrial support may become more common. For chemical buyers, Europe’s market will increasingly be shaped not only by supply and demand, but also by policy intervention. For Chinese exporters, price competitiveness remains powerful, but trade-remedy exposure, carbon accounting and origin scrutiny will become more material risks.
