Trump Wins 2024 U.S. Election: What Are the Implications for the U.S.-China Trade War and Taiwan Strait Situation?

With the 2024 US presidential election over, Republican candidate Donald Trump has managed to secure at least 270 electoral votes to once again become the national leader of the United States. The former entrepreneur and media personality launched a trade war against China while serving as the 45th president of the United States. Even after the Biden administration took over, most tariffs on China remained in place and are expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years.

In the campaign debate, Kamala Harris stressed that the core goal of U.S. policy toward China is to ensure victory in the competition of the 21st century. She advocates doing so by investing in homegrown technology, particularly in cutting-edge areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Harris made it clear on his campaign website that the United States will stand firm against unfair trade practices from China or other countries that harm American workers.

At the same time, Trump has laid out plans to expand the trade war, declaring that he will impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on all Chinese imports if he returns to the White House. He also threatened to retaliate if China or other countries imposed high tariffs on the United States.

Adam Slater, chief economist at Oxford Economics, has analyzed that Trump's protectionist and tariff policies could lead to a 70 percent reduction in bilateral trade between the United States and China, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in trade to disappear or be diverted. If Trump is elected, he may be more attuned to his supporters on trade policy because of term limits, rather than thinking through strategy as comprehensively as Democrats do, Weng Lizhong, an associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University in Texas, said in an interview.

He also predicted that Trump, after his election, could further support the electric vehicle industry and impose additional tariffs on components such as engines, motors and batteries from China, on top of the existing 100 percent tariffs. Chen Gong, chief researcher at Anbang Think Tank, said that although Trump sees the trade war as a political tool, his election may lead to greater fluctuations in the Sino-US trade war. Nonetheless, given the constraints placed on the president's power by the US political structure, his influence should not be overestimated.

Chen Gong believes that as long as the political structure of the separation of powers remains in place, Trump will be limited in his impact on Sino-US trade. China could offset these effects with a massive stimulus package to boost domestic demand. Indeed, no matter which candidate is elected, the actual scale of the trade war will depend on personnel arrangements within both parties.

Chong Jiaying, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, pointed out that there are three main forces in the Republican Party: first, the isolationist and protectionist line represented by Trump and vice presidential candidate JD Vance; The second is Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Trump administration, who has advocated abandoning Europe to focus on defending against China, while demanding that partners and Allies, including Taiwan, boost their military defenses. In terms of U.S. policy toward China, Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration, believes that the United States should compete with China across the board. Analyst Chuang Jiaying pointed out that although Trump's competition in the party will affect the stability of US-China trade relations, the two parties have basically reached a consensus on China relations. Since taking office, Biden has repeatedly expressed his willingness to help defend Taiwan, but his potential successor Kamala Harris is not firm enough in this attitude, stressing the maintenance of the "one China policy."

Trump's position is more vague, not promising direct military intervention in Taiwan and saying he would increase tax pressure on China.Schell, a scholar, points out that America's democratic institutions require the president to listen to public opinion, so it is uncertain whether the United States will send troops to defend Taiwan.

The Taiwan Relations Act commits Taiwan to providing defensive weapons, and the Biden administration has made several arms sales to Taiwan since 2021. Researcher Song Wendi believes that Taiwan is anxious about the outcome of the US election and worries about future changes in arms sales. Kamala Harris, if elected, is likely to be more focused on domestic issues, while Trump's mercantilism could make the United States retreat from its international obligations.

Still, scholars generally agree that a war across the Taiwan Strait is unlikely. Kamala Harris' policy is more predictable, while Trump is unpredictable, and may require Beijing to prepare a variety of response strategies. He stressed that Taiwan needs to make the United States appreciate its value in the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. In the short term, regardless of who is elected, the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait is low, and the key is whether the United States considers Taiwan vital.

But this does not mean that Trump will make concessions to China on American interests.

In addition, scholar Chuang Jiaying pointed out that Trump's policies are not systematic and may be detrimental to long-term investment, which makes Beijing believe that if Trump is elected, it may have an advantage in some ways in the future. The Biden administration has identified China as the "foremost geopolitical challenge" and warned of China's military threat to the United States.

Several experts predict that despite a possible brief honeymoon period in U.S.-China relations after the election, competition will remain the dominant theme. Schell stressed that U.S.-China relations are influenced by many factors, and the future development depends on the reaction of Chinese leaders and the interaction of the new president.