The overall trend of the n-butanol market this month bottomed out and rebounded（202104）

 The n-butanol market gradually recovered in April

 The overall trend of the n-butanol market this month bottomed out and rebounded. The downstream butyl acrylate market has improved, and factory operations have risen. Demand for n-butanol replenishment continues to increase. Orders from overall manufacturers of n-butanol increase this month, and the demand for replenishment by factories continues As a result, the overall transaction volume of the market has increased, and inventory has become tighter again. Manufacturers have continued to increase in the latter part of the month, and the market has recovered steadily.

 2. The market summary of the current period

2.1 The Asian market fluctuated within a narrow range this month

 The overall amplitude of the Asian n-butanol market narrowed this month, and the overall market trading atmosphere continued to decline steadily. This month, as the domestic market continued to pull back from a high level, while the overall demand for n-butanol declined, the overall center of gravity of the market continued to fall.

 The closing price of butanol in Europe and the United States this month and the statistics

The price trend of n-butanol in Northeast Asia from 2015 to 2021

2.12 Domestic market

 Comparison of domestic market price statistics of n-butanol this month

 2015-2021 East China market price trend of n-butanol

East China: In April, the overall n-butanol market in Jiangsu has recovered steadily, and the demand for concentrated purchases of downstream factories has risen. The market transaction atmosphere has generally improved. The spot buying atmosphere has gradually become active in the latter part of this month, plus May Day. The demand for pre-stocking increased, market transactions expanded, and the overall center of gravity continued to rise steadily. By the end of the month, mainstream negotiations and transactions in the local market were concentrated at around RMB 13,300-13,400/ton.

Shandong area: In April, the n-butanol market in Shandong area gradually recovered.

The overall sales continued to rise, and the number of orders from manufacturers in the latter part of the month increased, and the quotations continued to rise. By the end of the month, mainstream transactions in the local market were concentrated at around RMB 13,000-13,100/ton.

 North China In 43, the n-butanol market in North China continued to rebound as a whole, and the downstream factories in Hebei and other regions started to work.

Often, the plasticizer factory started to resume, but the overall transaction volume in the local secondary market was poor. By the end of the month, mainstream transactions in the local market were concentrated at around RMB 13,100/ton.

 South China: The overall trend of the n-butanol market in South China and Guangdong this month rose sharply and rebounded. CNOOC's installations this month.

Overhaul and parking, and the downstream demand for goods has improved. By the end of the month, mainstream negotiations and transactions in the local market were between 13500-13600 at around RMB/ton.

 Northeast China: The market trend of n-butanol in Northeast China continued to rise this month. The Daqing and Jilin Chemical plants were all operating normally, and the starting load of the plants was maintained at about 70% to 80%. The local market is still dominated by primary market transactions. , Factory of the Month.

Domestic production and sales are basically stable. By the end of the month, mainstream transactions in the local market were concentrated at around RMB 13,000-13,100/ton.

3. The next market trend forecast

4. Charts and detailed data

4.11 Supply analysis and forecast

4.1.1 Spot supply

Except for the long-term delivery of some downstream factories, the recent arrivals of imported goods to East China ports are still small. Later this month, due to the increase in downstream replenishment demand, the inventory level has declined slightly, but the increase in actual downstream consumption is limited. . The output of manufacturers is expected to decline, and the overall inventory level is expected to be in the middle next month, but the overall supply is still abundant in the short term.

Manufacturer's production and sales dynamics

 Unit: CNY/ton

 This month, the overall output and start-up of the domestic manufacturers of n-butanol were basically stable compared to the previous month. The Jilin Chemical Plant was in normal production this month, and the Daqing Plant was normal. Luxi plant is operating at full capacity this month. The two plants of Tianjin Bohua Yongli Chemical Co., Ltd. were operating at full capacity this month. The Lihuayi device is normal this month. Qilu Petrochemical Plant is normal. The Yankuang plant was normal this month. One set of Jiangsu Huachang Plant was operating normally this month. Wanhua Chemical's n-butanol plant was in normal production this month. This month, the entire Sichuan Petrochemical plant was operating normally. Anqing Shuguang's butanol plant was in normal production. The Shaanxi extension device is normal, and it will be overhauled in about 10 days in the last ten days. This month, the overall start-up level of downstream butyl acetate, butyl acrylate, DBP and other factories dropped. At the end of the month, the inventory of n-butanol in the port area was around 10,000 tons. The overall operating level of domestic n-butanol was around 80% this month.

2 Demand analysis and forecast

Main downstream start and profit analysis

At present, the overall operation of terminal solvents, adhesives, emulsions, including plastic products, and other industries continue to remain weak. Under the overall weak domestic demand and export environment, there are environmental protection policy pressures and trade disputes that affect the mentality of industry players. It is expected that downstream and terminal enterprises will order orders next month. The growth is still weak. The operating rate of the butyl ester plant is expected to remain stable next month, but the overall profitability of the industry remains weak.

Main downstream raw material inventory cycle

It is expected that downstream factories will have an increase in demand in the month, and the overall raw material inventory cycle is still strong, and the increase is expected to decline.

3 Profit analysis and forecast

Industry profit analysis

 At present, the average profit level of the butanol industry is still at a huge profit, which is the highest level in history. At the current market price of propylene in Shandong, the overall profitability of n-butanol is extremely high. However, next month is mainly due to the decline in replenishment demand from downstream butyl ester companies. The center of gravity is expected to decline, and the overall forecast is expected to fall.

Analysis of upstream and downstream profit drivers

Propylene: In May, the supply side: a number of refineries in the north are scheduled to be overhauled, and the propylene devices that were overhauled in the previous period will be restored one after another. The overall supply side still has a certain positive support. Demand side: The main downstream polypropylene plants have been put into production one after another. The spot market is expected to be weak in the future, and the upper limit of propylene prices will continue to be suppressed. Other downstream chemicals are profitable, and purchases are based on demand. It is expected that the domestic propylene market will mainly fluctuate in the range in April, focusing on changes in the main downstream market conditions and the dynamics of the maintenance of upstream and downstream devices.

Downstream: In May, the overall market trend of butyl acrylate and butyl acetate is expected to be weak. The overall operating rate of upstream companies is relatively stable, and the market supply is still relatively abundant. The downstream replenishment demand may still increase in April, but the overall market is expected Insufficient activity.

[Views & Summary]

The overall trend of the n-butanol market in May is expected to remain stable and strong at the initial stage, and it is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term. The overall demand for downstream products is expected to remain stable in the short term. There will still be increased demand for replenishment in downstream factories, but the market is expected to gradually increase in the latter part of next month Adjusted, so the market will generally decline next month.

5. Interpretation of hot topics in this issue

5.1 The comprehensive effect of domestic and international factors in the first quarter of import and export achieved a good start

In March 2021, China’s export value (USD calibre) increased by 30.6% year-on-year (Wind consensus expects 31.1%) and 154.9% in February; imports (USD calibre) increased by 38.1% (Wind consensus expectation 19.6%). 17.3%; the trade balance was 13.8 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 37.88 billion U.S. dollars in February.

Exports: Benefiting from better external demand and the continuation of the "substitution effect" of my country's supply chain, exports continued to be prosperous, with a two-year compound growth rate of 10.3% in March. In March, the manufacturing PMI of major economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan continued to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity (rising to 64.7, 62.5, and 52.7 respectively, setting new highs since December 1983, June 1997, and November 2018, respectively. ), which drove my country's USD-denominated export growth rate to reach 30.6% in March, which was slightly lower than Wind's consensus expectation (31.1%), but the overall export continued to remain in the high boom range, with a two-year compound growth rate of 10.3%. According to sub-regional observations, my country’s exports to developed countries and developing countries diverged in March. The growth rate of exports to the United States and Europe continued to grow at a high level (53.3% and 87.3% in March, respectively, a two-year compound The growth rate was 10.2% and 5.3% respectively), but the growth rate of exports to ASEAN countries declined, from 53% in January to February to 14.4% in March, a relatively large drop. Of course, from the overall perspective of the first quarter, ASEAN continued to maintain its position as my country's largest trading partner. In terms of products, my country’s mechanical and electrical products performed relatively well, priced in RMB. In the first quarter, my country’s exports of mechanical and electrical products were 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 43%, accounting for 60.3% of the total export value, an increase from the same period last year.

1.7 percentage points; among them, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, mobile phones, and automobiles increased by 54.5%, 38.5%, and 98.9% respectively, showing the continuation of the "substitution effect" of my country's supply chain. As for the export of epidemic prevention materials, my country’s first quarter includes

The export of textiles including masks increased by 30.6%, continuing to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate, but the growth rate has begun to decline significantly, of which the export of medical equipment and textiles increased by 39% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively (previous values were 75% and 61%) ), which is also related to the gradual control of overseas epidemics and the rapid advancement of overseas vaccines. On the whole, we believe that exports are still in a relatively high economic range, and are expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in the first half of the year. In the next period of time, the structural differentiation of export products may further increase along with the recovery of overseas supply.

Imports: Benefiting from the significant increase in demand for bulk commodities, imports grew faster than expected in March, which led to a narrowing of the trade balance in March. In March, my country’s imports increased by 38.1%, significantly exceeding the 19.6% expected by Wind. According to our calculations, the two-year compound growth rate reached 16.7%, the highest level in recent years. It also drove the March trade balance to narrow to US$13.8 billion, a low 37.88 billion U.S. dollars in February. Observed by categories, the increase in imports was significantly promoted by the volume of bulk commodity imports. Throughout the first quarter, my country imported 283 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 8%; imported 139 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 9.5%; and imported 29.388 million tons of natural gas, an increase of 19.6%. In the same period, imports of soybeans were 21.178 million tons, an increase of 19%; corn was 6.727 million tons, an increase of 437.8%; wheat was 2.925 million tons, an increase of 131.2%. At the same time, the prices of these commodities have risen relatively significantly. As of March, the import price of iron ore has increased year-on-year for 7 consecutive months, the import price of copper ore has increased year-on-year for 11 consecutive months, and the import price of soybeans has increased for 4 consecutive months. The month-on-year increase, the import prices of the above products in the first quarter rose by 53.5%, 28% and 11.1% year-on-year respectively. Therefore, both from the perspective of volume and price, the import volume of bulk commodities has significantly driven my country's recent import performance to continue to exceed expectations.

The boom in foreign trade still has continuity. From the perspective of the import and export structure in the first quarter and March, we believe that the relatively strong domestic and foreign demand will continue to be reflected in the performance of import and export activities in the second quarter, and the boom in foreign trade is expected to continue. At the export level, take the United States as an example. As of the end of February this year, the gap between the production side and the demand side in the United States was still at the highest level in history, and the recovery of production continued to be slower than the recovery of demand, indicating that the "substitution effect" of my country's supply chain will continue to export to my country. Formed support; and from the perspective of freight rates, the SCFI index continued to maintain a high level in the first half of April, indicating that external demand is still strong. From its guiding observations over the past year, the relatively high level of this index will also be reflected in the export growth performance for a period of time in the future. As for imports, we also believe that the boom will continue. On the one hand, short-term commodity prices are still expected to remain at a relatively high level, which will support upstream imports; on the other hand, with the gradual stabilization and recovery of my country’s consumer market, my country’s demand for terminal consumer goods still has room for a certain rebound. Both will drive the growth of imports to continue its resilience, and we are not pessimistic about the subsequent growth trend of imports. On the whole, there is a high probability that the relative prosperity of foreign trade will continue, and this will be reflected to a certain extent in the support for the real economy. Over the past year, the growth rate of exports has been in good synchronization with manufacturing investment. Therefore, we also maintain a positive view on manufacturing investment in the next quarter. The internal dynamics of the economy can be restored and it is worth looking forward to.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: By 2035, manufacturing enterprises above designated size will fully popularize digitalization

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology drafted the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing Development" (Draft for Solicitation of Comments) in conjunction with relevant departments, which is now open to the public for comments. The draft for comments proposes that by 2025, manufacturing enterprises above designated size will be basically digitized, and key enterprises in key industries will initially realize intelligent transformation.

3 Dynamic details of domestic enterprise installations of butanol

Installation dynamics of domestic butanol manufacturers