2025 Maleic Anhydride Market Analysis and 2026 Forecast

January 31st, news:

2025 Maleic Anhydride Market Review

According to the commodity market analysis system: In 2025, the maleic anhydride market in China experienced a fluctuating downward trend. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 6,520 CNY/ton, and by the end of the year, it had decreased to 5,112.50 CNY/ton, representing an annual price decrease of 21.59%. The highest point of the year occurred on April 28th at 6,925 CNY/ton, while the lowest point was on December 18th at 5,125 CNY/ton, with the maximum fluctuation range for the year being 25.99%. In 2025, the maleic anhydride market in China saw a significant decline.

From the monthly K-bar chart data of the maleic anhydride market in 2025, the maleic anhydride market in China saw more declines than increases, with 3 months of upward movement and 9 months of downward movement. Among these, the highest price increase was in March, rising by 3.19%, and the highest price decrease was in July, falling by 6.01%.

First half of the year: After a brief surge, prices came under pressure and declined.

From the beginning of the year to early May: The market continued the recovery trend that began at the end of 2024. Coupled with the rebound in operating rates of downstream industries such as unsaturated resins and coatings following the Spring Festival, the price of maleic anhydride fluctuated upward from 6,520 CNY/ton to a year-high of 6,925 CNY/ton. From May to June: As new production capacity came online, supply pressure in the market became prominent. Combined with insufficient follow-up demand from downstream users, prices quickly fell back to 6,330 CNY/ton.

Second half of the year: Supply-demand imbalance accelerates downward trend.

From July to year-end, the price of maleic anhydride entered a one-way downward trend. On the one hand, several maleic anhydride plants in China have recently completed their commissioning simultaneously, driving the industry’s capacity utilization rate above 75% and resulting in a persistent oversupply in the market. On the other hand, the downstream unsaturated resin industry has been hit by a sluggish real estate market and shrinking export orders, causing its operating rate to remain around 50%, thus weakening demand-side support. As a result, prices have steadily declined from 6,237.5 CNY/ton to 5,112.5 CNY/ton, with the cumulative price decrease in the second half of the year exceeding 18%.

2026 Maleic Anhydride Market Forecast

Cost aspect:

Raw Material: n-Butane: In 2025, the n-butane market experienced volatile downward trends. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 5,180 CNY/ton, dropping to 4,470 CNY/ton by year-end, representing an annual price decrease of 13.71%. The n-butane market was significantly influenced by fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Additionally, in 2025, China's naphtha market first rose and then fell, with a price decrease of 9.35%, providing limited cost support for the n-butane market.

Supply Side: In 2025, China's effective maleic anhydride capacity reached 1.92 million tons/year, with the actual production volume at approximately 1.685 million tons. The operating rate maintained a high level of 87.8%, reflecting a tight balance in the overall supply and demand of the industry. In 2025, China's maleic anhydride capacity structure underwent significant changes, with the n-butane oxidation process accounting for 76.3%, a significant increase from 58.1% in 2020, marking a round of technological iteration under energy efficiency and environmental constraints. In comparison, the capacity of the benzene oxidation process was reduced to 0.237 million tons/year, with its share dropping to 17.9%.

Demand Side: In 2025, China’s apparent consumption of maleic anhydride is expected to reach approximately 861,000 tons, representing a 6.3% increase from the 810,000 tons consumed in 2024. Among the downstream consumption sectors for maleic anhydride in 2025, unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) will remain the largest segment, accounting for about 48% of total consumption; however, its growth rate will slow down to 5.2%. BDO will account for 22.3% of consumption, with a growth rate as high as 14.7%, driven by the expansion wave of BDO production facilities in regions such as Ningdong and Yulin.

The unsaturated resins industry remains one of the largest demand sectors for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly half of the total. In 2025, the supply of UPR continued to exceed demand, with most producers maintaining low operating rates, and the overall market price of unsaturated resins showed a downward trend. In 2026, downstream demand is expected to maintain structural growth, with wind power, rail transit, and new energy vehicles becoming new growth drivers. Among these, the annual growth rate of high-performance vinyl ester resins used in wind turbine blades is expected to exceed 12%. Orders for traditional downstream industries such as shipbuilding and conventional automobile manufacturing are projected to continue shrinking. In shipbuilding, SMC materials account for over 30%, and the industry's downturn has directly led to a sharp decline in procurement volumes.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, real estate development investment in China was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% compared to the previous year; of which, residential investment was 6.3514 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. In 2025, the floor area under construction by real estate development enterprises was 6,598,900,000 square meters, a decrease of 10.0% compared to the previous year. Among this, the floor area under construction for residential buildings was 4,601,230,000 square meters, a decrease of 10.3%. The floor area of new construction starts was 587,700,000 square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. Among this, the floor area of new residential construction starts was 429,840,000 square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The floor area of completed buildings was 603,480,000 square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. Among this, the floor area of completed residential buildings was 428,300,000 square meters, a decrease of 20.2%. Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, with a severe shortage of new start projects, and the demand for glass in the real estate sector continued to decline substantially. The traditional terminal industry's demand for the unsaturated resins industry increased only marginally.

The data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 34,531,000 and 34,400,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.4% and 9.4%. Among these, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 16,626,000 and 16,490,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29% and 28.2%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.9% of total new car sales. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive sector has increased.

According to the data, in 2025, the BDO market in China experienced a situation of first falling then rising, followed by a continuous decline, with an overall weak trend. Throughout the year, the BDO industry continued to release new production capacity, while downstream demand failed to keep pace, further exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction. Intense market competition led to prolonged price pressure. The overcapacity situation in the industry continued to solidify, and by the end of 2025, China's BDO production capacity reached 6,050,000 tons per year (including under construction), with an annual output of about 2,580,000 tons. The overall operating rate of the industry was maintained at around 50%. The operation of enterprises showed significant differentiation, with integrated enterprises in the northwest relying on their cost advantages in raw materials, achieving operating rates of 70%-80%, while small and medium-sized enterprises lacking cost advantages had operating rates below 30%, with some facilities even being shut down for a long time.

Market Forecast: In 2026, the market price of maleic anhydride is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4,800 to 6,800 CNY per ton. The price trend will be influenced by the following factors:

On the raw material side, the price trends of n-butane and benzene will directly affect the production cost of maleic anhydride.

Supply side: The pace at which new production capacity is released will affect the balance between market supply and demand.

On the demand side: Changes in demand from downstream PBAT and UPR industries will directly affect maleic anhydride prices.

Policy side: Environmental protection policies and carbon reduction requirements will increase production costs, providing support for prices.