September Phosphate Market Trends Rise Initially, Then Fall

September 30 update

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, on September 30th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6670 CNY/ton, and on September 1st, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6700 CNY/ton. The price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China fell by 0.45% this month.

II. Market Analysis

This month, China's phosphate market experienced a mixed trend—prices initially rose before declining. In the first half of the month, phosphate prices in China edged up slightly, as yellow phosphorus, the key raw material, remained largely stable with minimal cost fluctuations. Meanwhile, trading activity in the phosphate market stayed steady, with downstream buyers purchasing only as needed.

However, in the second half of the month, phosphate prices in China began to fluctuate downward. This was driven by a drop in yellow phosphorus prices, which weakened cost support for the market. As a result, phosphate prices followed the downward momentum of their primary input. Despite this, supply and demand in the phosphate market remained balanced throughout the period.

Market Trends

As of September 30, the ex-factory price for 85% thermal-grade phosphoric acid in Hubei was around 6,400–6,800 CNY per ton, while in Sichuan, it stood at approximately 6,300–6,700 CNY per ton. In Yunnan, the ex-factory price for 85% thermal-grade phosphoric acid was about 6,450 CNY per ton.

Raw Material Market Conditions

The raw material yellow phosphorus market trend. This month, the yellow phosphorus market in China has shown a weak downward trend. The supply of yellow phosphorus is abundant, while market demand has weakened. Inquiries from downstream have decreased, with more pressure on price reductions during purchases. Approaching the National Day holiday, to alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers have lowered prices to sell goods.

III. Market Forecast

Phosphate analysts note that the phosphate market has been moving steadily and calmly recently. Raw material yellow phosphorus prices remain weak, lacking strong cost-based support. Currently, trading activity in the phosphate market remains decent, as downstream buyers are looking to replenish their inventories ahead of the upcoming holidays. Overall, the Chinese phosphate market is expected to stay largely stagnant in the near term.