In September, the caustic soda price in China showed a generally weak trend

On September 30, in the women's singles 1/16 match of the 2025 World Table Tennis Professional Alliance (WTT) China Grand Slam held in Beijing, Chinese player Sun Yingsha defeated her teammate Zhu Sibing 3-0, advancing to the top 16.On the same day, in the men's singles quarterfinals of the 2024 China Open, wildcard entry Chinese player Buyunchaokete defeated the tournament's 4th seed, Russian player Andrey Rublev, with scores of 7-5, 6-4, reaching the semifinals and setting a new record for Chinese male players at the China Open.

I. Price Trends

According to the monitoring data, the overall operation of caustic soda in September was relatively weak. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 890 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region dropped to 832 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.52%, which is also a 0.12% decrease compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the chemical index stood at 765 points, down 1 point from the previous day, a 45.36% decline from the highest point of 1400 points (on October 23, 2021), and a 27.93% increase from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020 (Note: The cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011).

II. Market Analysis

According to the data from the investigation, the overall caustic soda price is showing a weak operation trend. In Shandong, the main market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 750-820 CNY/ton. The caustic soda price in Jiangsu remains stable, with the main market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda being around 890-970 CNY/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with the main market quotation for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) being around 2700-2800 CNY/ton. This month, the caustic soda price has been declining, and in the Shandong region, the main trend is a decrease in prices. The continuous drop in both domestic and overseas alumina prices has led to a continuous narrowing of profit margins for Chinese alumina enterprises, thus downstream alumina purchases are mainly on a needs basis, and non-alumina buyers also purchase according to their needs. Supply is relatively abundant. The price of low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, and due to the approaching National Day, caustic soda companies have softened prices to reduce inventory, but overall, it is expected that the prices will mainly consolidate in the later period.

Analysts believe that in recent times, the caustic soda price has been showing a weak trend. The price of caustic soda is operating at a low level, and recently, the downstream demand in China has been average. Caustic soda enterprises have ample inventories, leading to significant pressure on inventory depletion. The downstream alumina market may continue to see a stable but slightly weak situation. Considering the game between supply and demand, it is estimated that the caustic soda market will maintain a consolidation trend later on, which will depend specifically on the downstream market demand.