Weak Decline in TDI Market in September

September 30 update

According to the commodity market analysis system, the TDI market in East China was generally weak and continuously declined in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI was 14,700 CNY/ton, and by September 29, the TDI price had dropped to 13,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6.12% within the month, but an increase of 5.75% year-on-year.

In September, the TDI market in China did not show strong performance during the peak season, and the weak trend could not be changed. At the beginning of the month, the trading within the market was relatively quiet, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. Downstream demand was mainly based on rigid needs, entering the market when prices were low. Traders quoted prices according to the market, and due to the lack of positive news to boost the market, under the dominance of buyers, the transaction focus of TDI continued to decline. Mid-month, there were frequent positive news from suppliers; a major factory in the north supplied at 20% of capacity, leading to tight supply. A major factory in Shanghai raised its guidance price to 14,200 CNY/ton, with tight inventory. The news boosted the confidence of market participants, and traders raised their quotations. However, downstream demand was still mainly based on rigid needs, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was not high. As prices rose, transactions became scarce. The market stabilized until the end of the month.

Supply side: The TDI unit of Yantai Wanhua began to shut down for maintenance on August 19, and it is expected to last for about 40 days.

Cost aspect: In September 2025, the toluene market in China experienced a fluctuating decline. From September 1st to 26th, the price of toluene in China fell from 5420 CNY/ton to 5370 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 0.92% within the period. The demand from downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained stable, with purchases mainly driven by necessity. The market trend was relatively stable, with low enthusiasm from downstream participants entering the market. There was a lack of clear guidance in the market, leading to limited fluctuations.

Looking ahead, the TDI data analyst believes that the current downward trend in the TDI market is slowing. As the end of the month approaches, it’s crucial to closely monitor the settlement prices announced by major manufacturers. In the short term, fundamentals remain weak, and we expect the TDI market to trade within a narrow range in the near term.