Significant Supply Increase, Acrylonitrile Market Weak and Fluctuating

October 10, news

During the dual festivals in 2025, the price of acrylonitrile in China was mainly adjusted at a low level. As of October 9th, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 8,050-8,150 CNY per ton, and the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 7,950-8,050 CNY per ton, both showing a slight decline compared to before the festival.

Market Analysis:

Entering October, the supply of acrylonitrile in China has significantly increased, with some previously shut-down facilities gradually resuming operations, coupled with the addition of newly commissioned plants, pushing the industry's capacity utilization rate to nearly 80%. However, demand remains relatively stable, leading to a further weakening of the fundamentals. During the long holiday, companies experienced inventory accumulation, resulting in an overall market situation of oversupply. Under the pressure of resource surplus, the market fluctuates and declines, with some acrylonitrile factories continuously lowering their quotations, dragging down the spot market atmosphere. On the first working day after the holiday, most operators were mainly cautious and observant, with a rather general inquiry atmosphere.

Acrylonitrile price trends—upward or downward—from around the 2022-2025 National Day holiday period:

Looking back over the past three years, the acrylonitrile market during the National Day holiday has seen both increases and decreases. The main reason for the market fluctuations is that before the National Day, acrylonitrile companies often reduce production and inventory to adjust for inventory pressure, coupled with a certain level of stocking demand from downstream sectors before the holiday, leading to a good trading atmosphere and a relatively firm and upward trend in transaction prices. However, in the last two years, with the continuous increase in acrylonitrile production capacity in China, the problem of oversupply has become significant, resulting in a continuous decline in the intensity of downstream stockpiling.

Fundamental Analysis:

In terms of supply, there are no plant maintenance plans for acrylonitrile factories in October. During the holiday, acrylonitrile factories experienced inventory accumulation, and with the expectation of previously shut-down units restarting, coupled with fewer working days this month, the supply pressure on the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased.

On the demand side, in China's ABS sector, although the commissioning of some new facilities has been delayed and some plant maintenance plans have been postponed, there are still some new facilities with commissioning plans, and some maintenance units are gradually returning to normal. If there are no unplanned outages, the operating rate in October is expected to increase slightly. In terms of acrylic fiber, although there may still be fluctuations, due to frequent equipment rotation and maintenance in the previous period, it is expected that the overall fluctuation will be limited, and the operating rate will show a slight increase. However, the overall change in demand is not significant.

Market Forecast

In terms of cost, the upstream propylene price will be dominated by changes in the supply side, and it is expected that the propylene market will operate weakly, which may weaken the cost support for acrylonitrile. In terms of supply, as the previously shut-down facilities restart in early October, the supply of acrylonitrile to the market will continue to increase. On the demand side, the operating rates of the three major downstream areas—ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide—are generally maintained at a low level of 60%-70%, providing limited support for the demand of acrylonitrile. The mismatch between the growth pace of supply and demand in the acrylonitrile industry leads to a situation where supply exceeds demand once again. Inventory accumulation and loss pressure will coexist, causing the market to weaken in the short term. Over the long term, there may be uncertainties in the supply side, and the supply-demand relationship needs improvement.