October 9th News
According to the SpotCom AI assistant, as of October 8, 2026, the spot market for 180CST fuel oil in China has shown an overall downward trend. The quotations in Qingdao and Shanghai regions have decreased by 100-200 CNY/ton in a single day. Based on the analysis of the average difference system, the current fuel oil is in a clear downward trend, and the price is at a high level within the recent one-year cycle, with limited upside potential. Subsequent downward pressure is significant.
1. Spot Market Fundamentals in China
On October 8, 2026, the self-pickup price range for Chinese 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil was 7,400-8,000 CNY/ton. Specifically, the price in Zhongran's Qingdao region was 7,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton from the previous day; and the price in Zhongran's Shanghai region was 7,450 CNY/ton, a decrease of 200 CNY/ton from the previous day. In terms of upstream costs, the settlement price for the December contract of Brent crude oil futures on October 7 was $100.20 per barrel, a 0.4% decrease, which somewhat eased the cost support for fuel oil.
The most recent data currently available is as of October 8, 2026; it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Analysis of the Mean Difference Signal
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Value on October 8, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value on October 7, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -60.00 | 0.00 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -7.50 | 2.50 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 25.00 | 31.87 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination: Clearly Identify a Downtrend Signal
3. Trend Direction Conclusion: The current trend in fuel oil prices in China is clearly downward.
Judgment Reason: The 5-day average difference, 10-day average difference, and 20-day average difference all changed in the same negative direction compared to the previous day, which meets the criteria for a clear downward trend according to the average difference method.
III. Price Position and Reference for Upside and Downside Potential
Fuel oil prices for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all in the 5th tier (high range), with limited room for further increases. Given the clear downward trend, there is significant downward pressure going forward.
IV. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Five, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
