Expected Minor Fluctuations in Lithium Carbonate Prices in October

October 10, news

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, lithium carbonate has shown a slight volatile trend. As of October 10, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at 73,166 CNY per ton, down 1.26% from the previous week and 10.1% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,366 CNY per ton, declining by 0.95% week-on-week and dropping 9.13% compared to the same period last year.

Supply Side: Mine-Side Disruptions Ease

In July, a notice from the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, was circulated within the industry. The notice required eight local lithium-related mining companies to complete the preparation of the ore type change and resource verification reports by September 30, scientifically and reasonably determining the main ore types for mining. Influenced by this news, the spot price of lithium carbonate surged from 60,000 to 80,000, but the market then cooled down rationally, with prices returning to around 70,000. Recently, it has been reported that all eight lithium-related mining companies have submitted their ore type change and resource verification reports. The impact on supply from the mining end has weakened.

Demand side: Energy storage leads the increment, with demand resilience becoming evident

Energy storage has become the core driver of demand in October, with leading energy storage battery companies (such as CATL and BYD) extending their order delivery cycles to 45 days. In September, production schedules were maintained at over 95%, and it is expected that the output of cathode material factories will continue to show a month-on-month upward trend.

Demand for power batteries is steadily improving.

Sales in the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 1.123 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with a market penetration rate of 53.3%. Although declining subsidies in Europe and North America have led to a slowdown in export order growth, robust demand during China's peak season continues to drive steady growth in power battery installations, underscoring the sector's strong resilience.

Inventory remains at high levels

As of the end of September, the total inventory of lithium carbonate in China was 136,800 tons, with upstream inventory at 33,500 tons, downstream inventory at 60,900 tons, and other segments' inventory at 42,400 tons. The high inventory's pressure on prices has not yet fully dissipated; under the condition where the supply and demand increments are close in October, it may turn into inventory accumulation, limiting the upward space for prices.

The lithium carbonate data analyst believes: In October, the lithium carbonate market will be in a balanced state of "marginal improvement in supply and demand" and "high inventory suppression," with prices expected to fluctuate slightly; specific developments still need to be monitored based on market changes.