This week, the polyester bottle chip market in China showed a trend of first declining then rising (10.20-24)

October 24th News

This week, the polyester bottle chip market in China showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with relatively small overall fluctuations. According to the data, on October 24, the average selling price of PET was 5,755 CNY/ton.

Cost factors: At the beginning of the week, polyester bottle flake prices declined as they were weighed down by weaker crude oil prices. However, geopolitical risks later spurred a rebound in oil prices, boosting cost support and providing some stability to polyester bottle flake prices, ultimately helping them stop falling and start recovering.

Supply-and-demand dynamics: This week, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remained steady at around 72.59%. Although mainstream factories continue to implement production-cutting plans, the market still enjoys ample spot supply. Meanwhile, overcapacity remains a long-term challenge for the industry, continuously limiting the room for prices to rebound. On the supply side, conditions remain stable, with abundant spot availability—this, to some extent, is keeping price increases in check. As for demand, we’re currently in the seasonal off-season. Cooler weather has led to a modest decline in soft drink and foodservice demand. According to data, soft drink production from January to August 2025 fell by 4.8% year-on-year. Downstream end-users are largely adopting a "just-in-time purchasing" approach, showing little enthusiasm for large-scale stockpiling, which has pushed the market’s trading activity toward lower price levels.

Export situation: Influenced by upstream raw materials, polyester bottle flake factories have raised their export quotes, with mainstream bottle flake manufacturers in East China now negotiating prices ranging from $750 to $770 per ton FOB Shanghai Port. However, according to analysis from Southwest Futures, the growth rate of bottle flake exports is showing a slowing trend.

Market expectations: The market is anticipated to remain volatile with a slight upward bias next week. On the cost side, geopolitical factors are expected to provide support, helping prices of bottle flakes stay firm. However, given stable supply levels and ample spot availability, combined with seasonally weak demand—driven primarily by essential purchasing needs—the upside for bottle flake prices will be limited. As a result, prices are forecast to fluctuate within the range of 5,600–5,800 CNY per ton.