July 21st News
Since July 2026, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating. As of July 21, the spot price of natural rubber in China's market was around 16,758 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from 16,791 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, with the main trend being fluctuation and consolidation during the period.
On the supply side, robust production growth is offset by weather disruptions. Southeast Asia has entered the peak rubber tapping season. As of July 21, natural rubber latex prices in Thailand stood at 78.00 Thai baht per kilogram, while cup lump prices reached 70.50 Thai baht per kilogram—representing a year-on-year price increase of over 40%. These rising raw material costs are providing bottom-floor support. Meanwhile, localized rainfall in major producing regions is disrupting tapping activities, temporarily restraining the release of new rubber supplies. According to ANRPC data, global natural rubber production totaled 997,000 tons in May, down 4.7% year-on-year. The global supply-demand balance for the year as a whole continues to show a slight deficit, and long-term expectations remain favorable amid ongoing El Niño impacts.
Demand-side pressure during the off-season significantly suppresses upward potential. As of July 16, the semi-steel tire operating rate in China was 60%; the full-steel tire operating load for tire enterprises in Shandong was 62%, with companies commonly implementing rotating maintenance and production controls. Finished tire inventory days in Shandong exceeded 40, with factories only purchasing based on immediate needs and showing low willingness to actively replenish stock. Only the rise in crude oil prices has slightly increased the cost of synthetic rubber, modestly improving the comparative advantage of natural rubber. The EU's anti-dumping policy continues to suppress export orders.
Inventory levels have slightly declined but remain relatively high. As of July 19, 2026, the total inventory volume of natural rubber in the Qingdao area—comprising both bonded and general trade inventories—stood at 667,400 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period. The pace of inventory reduction remains slow, making it difficult to reverse the current loose spot market conditions.
Outlook:
From a technical perspective: In late March to mid-June 2026, natural rubber prices in China rose, with the 10-day and medium-term 20-day moving averages both trending upward, supporting the uptrend with a bullish alignment of the moving averages. Prices continued to fluctuate around these moving averages. In late June, the trend reversed, and prices dropped sharply, successively breaking below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with the short-term moving averages turning downward and forming bearish pressure. Recently, the spot price has been slightly oscillating around the 10-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average continues to decline, creating overhead resistance. The overall trend has shifted from bullish to bearish, with a clear bearish pattern in the medium-term moving averages. The recent slight oversold rebound is limited in strength.
From a fundamental perspective, natural rubber is likely to remain in a range-bound trading pattern in the short term. If continued heavy rains in Southeast Asia disrupt tapping activities, there could be some room for a modest rebound; however, if weather conditions in producing regions improve and new rubber supplies come onto the market in large volumes, prices may face downward pressure and fall back. In the medium term, with downstream maintenance periods ending in August and production expected to pick up again, coupled with optimistic consumer expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the center of gravity for rubber prices could shift upward moderately.
