Capacity expansion PTA processing fees are hovering at a low level

From April to June this year, the main contract of PTA has been oscillating in the range of 4500-5000 CNY/ton, and the market has shown the characteristics of low volatility. At the same time, the market has risen and fallen more and more rapidly. It takes 2-3 days to quickly complete a period of expectations, and then slowly digest market sentiment.

　　 PTA supply pressure still exists

　　 In the first half of the year, two new domestic PTA installations have been put into use, totaling 5 million tons. Subsequently, the 3.3 million tons of Yisheng new materials equipment is expected to be discharged around July, and a 3.3 million tons of equipment will be put into operation in the fourth quarter. If all are put on schedule, the PTA production capacity is expected to increase by 10.5 million tons in 2021, and the production capacity growth rate will reach 18%. In terms of PX, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 million tons of new equipment is expected to be launched in July. Overall, the supply of PTA is loose.

According to the current situation of PTA equipment, companies with only PTA equipment include BP Zhuhai, Liwan Polyester, Reignwood Petrochemical, Jialong Petrochemical, Pengwei Petrochemical, and Yadong Petrochemical, with a total production capacity of 6.7 million tons, accounting for the national production capacity. The companies with PX and PTA devices are Yangzi Petrochemical, Urumqi Petrochemical, Taiwan Chemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Zhongtai Chemical, with a total production capacity of 4.425 million tons, accounting for 7% of the national production capacity; those with PTA and polyester products The companies are Hanbang Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, Xinfengming, Honggang Petrochemical, Fujian Baihong, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber, with a total production capacity of 17.8 million tons, accounting for 28% of the national production capacity; companies with integrated PX, PTA and polyester are Hengli, Yisheng, Tongkun, Fuhaichuang, Jinshan Petrochemical, Fuhaichuang, and Tianjin Petrochemical have a combined production capacity of 33.715 million tons, accounting for 54% of the national production capacity.

　　 From the perspective of the competitiveness of enterprises, enterprises with upstream and downstream supporting facilities are more able to withstand price fluctuations. At present, the installations with long shutdown time and unknown restart plan include Yangzi Petrochemical 350,000 tons, Reignwood Petrochemical 1.4 million tons, Liwan Polyester 700,000 tons, Jinshan Petrochemical 400,000 tons, Tianjin Petrochemical 340,000 tons, Jialong Petrochemical 600,000 tons Tons, Hanbang Petrochemical 2.9 million tons, Pengwei Petrochemical more than 900,000 tons, with a total production capacity of 7.59 million tons, accounting for 12% of the total production capacity, most of which are small-scale equipment without upstream and downstream supporting facilities. With loose supply and low processing fees, companies are facing the test of cost control capabilities.

　　Poor polyester consumption forms negative feedback

　　 Although crude oil prices on the cost side continue to rise, the demand for terminal weaving links is still at the off-season level. After the rise in crude oil prices, PTA processing profits were compressed, so PTA followed the rise and passed on the cost pressure. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, the valuation of PTA has risen regressively. After last Wednesday, the continued increase in costs did not push the price of PX to rise sharply, and PTA went up alone, which greatly increased the PTA processing fee to nearly 700 CNY/ton. Last Thursday, the short-fiber products downstream of polyester were unable to keep up, declaring that the entire cost of pushing up prices once again encountered obstacles.

　　 This process is another test of the actual demand of the terminal by the upstream, and the negative feedback of the price also reflects that the terminal consumption is indeed at the off-season level. The price of Shengze chemical fiber fabrics is in a downward trend, and sales volume has not increased in the process of falling prices, but has shrunk.

In the case of the PTA price increase, the polyester filament factory reduced the price by 200-300 CNY/ton for promotion. However, the production and sales only reached about 300%, which was far below the level of 400-500% before the Dragon Boat Festival, and did not exceed expectations. . The order start of downstream loom factories is at a normal level, and the company's inventory is in 1-2 weeks. Due to the downside of the market outlook and the consideration of capital costs, there is no excessive willingness to prepare. Therefore, it is still difficult for PTA to start a new trend market in general.

On the whole, the cost of the polyester industry chain is difficult to effectively transmit to the terminal, so the overall profit margin is limited. The current profit is concentrated on the crude oil side, and the crude oil price has risen to the current level, which is a slight overbought sign. Therefore, it is recommended to buy more orders at this stage.