Polyester price increase! PTA supply is tight + neopentyl glycol rebounds high

Recently, people familiar with the matter revealed that the supply of PTA used in polyester resin is now a little tight. It is suspected that Hengli and Yisheng only pay 40% of the contracts with customers, while the goods of corporate agents and traders have been "cut off". . The above-mentioned person familiar with the matter also said that several Haikou in Zhangjiagang are currently closed due to the typhoon, and the specific time is to be determined.

If the news is true, the impact on polyester is still great.

Statistics show that my country is now the largest PTA country in the world. At present, the annual domestic PTA production capacity has increased to 49 million tons. Among them, the four major enterprises of Yisheng, Hengli, Yuanyuandong and Yuanxianglu account for more than 60% of the existing production capacity.

If it is true that even Yisheng and Hengli are "insufficient" as the above-mentioned sources said, then the price of PTA may continue to rise.

Data show that on July 26, the closing price of PTA's main 09 contract was 5,324 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.71%. On the news, it is said that the relevant departments have cracked down on malicious hoarding, which led to a slight decline in PTA today.

But even if PTA has a callback momentum, the current PTA price is still at a high level compared to the previous period. The current PTA futures price is 4974 CNY/ton on July 20, an increase of 7%; compared with the main 05 contract of PTA futures at the beginning of the year, 3922 CNY/ton, an increase of 26.82%.

What is the reason that gave birth to this wave of PTA market in the past week?

At present, the market believes that the main reason for the increase is that the main port of the Yangtze River is expected to be closed for three days due to the typhoon, and the unloading in Zhapu will be affected. Superimposed on the expectation of the mainstream manufacturers to reduce the supply of contract goods in August, the contradiction between supply and demand in some areas of PTA has intensified, resulting in PTA. Fast upward.

At the same time, due to the low load of the PTA device (a set of 2 million tons of PTA device in East China was shut down on July 24 and planned to restart on July 26), and the downstream and terminal operations were relatively high, the short-term supply and demand were expected to be warmer and the warehouse was expected to go to the warehouse. Contrary to the trend, crude oil led the rise, which in turn drove the rise of other polyester raw materials.

From the perspective of the PTA supply and demand pattern, the current demand for polyester remains low in the off-season under high temperatures, and the operating rate is close to about 94%, while the supply-side PTA device maintenance remains high.

According to the company's introduction, PTA must be used for polyester, and if manufacturers want to supply it, they must first supply large customers. After all, the amount of PTA used for textile polyester is large. In the case of polyester for powder coatings, PTA is currently tight, and the amount will be less.

In this context, the "gap" of PTA may force downstream polyester manufacturers to be unable to produce normally, leading to an increase in polyester prices.

It is worth mentioning that, in addition to PTA, Neopentyl Glycol, another major raw material of Polyester Resin, also rose sharply.

Neopentyl glycol is a chemical product with isobutyraldehyde as the main raw material. Its main use is polyester resin. The end products are found in the fields of automobiles, textiles, medicine, coatings, pesticides, plastics, and petroleum. Take Wanhua Chemical’s Neopentyl Glycol price as an example. On July 26, Wanhua Chemical’s neopentyl glycol was raised by 500 yuan per ton, and the price was 20,300 CNY/ton. The current price is RMB 19,900/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 2%, and RMB 14,300/ton at the beginning of the year, an increase of 42%.

Regarding the reason for the price increase of neopentyl glycol, Wanhua Chemical said: the raw material isobutyraldehyde of neopentyl glycol is strong at a high level. At the same time, the follow-up inventory and maintenance plan of some neopentyl glycol plants has improved market sentiment, replenishment is active, and the market focus is rapidly increasing. shift.

In fact, except for large factories like Wanhua, on July 26, the market has heard that neopentyl glycol has risen to 21,000 CNY/ton, which is 18,000 CNY/ton compared to the market price on July 12, and that neopentyl glycol has risen per ton in about two weeks. 3,000 yuan, an increase of 16.67%! ! Therefore, the polyester resin is affected by the superposition of two raw materials, and the possibility of price increase is not ruled out in the future.