Demand Flat, Adipic Acid Prices Decline in May

May 29th, news:

According to SpotCom data: In May, the price of adipic acid in China showed a weak fluctuation, with a slight market oscillation. On May 1st, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 9,100 CNY/ton, and by May 28th, the average market price had risen to 9,133 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.37%.

The main factors influencing the rise and fall of adipic acid prices in May

Supply side: Chinese adipic acid manufacturers have reduced production due to maintenance, but the pressure of overcapacity remains. Industry operating rate: It has decreased from 75% in April to 65% by late May, with multiple plants reducing load or shutting down temporarily (such as Hualu and Shenma), leading to a short-term supply contraction. Factory inventory is neutral, and port inventory is not high, with no significant inventory accumulation pressure for now.

Demand side: It’s traditionally the off-season, and downstream demand is generally weak. End-use demand for automobiles and electronics remains sluggish, prompting cautious raw-material procurement. Orders for shoe sole base liquids/pastes are insufficient during the off-season, with demand driven primarily by essential needs.

Cost side: Pure benzene prices declined, weakening support. Raw material pure benzene: Prices fell in mid-to-late May, with Sinopec lowering its listed prices, easing cost pressure on adipic acid—but also losing the support for price increases.

Technical-level prediction

According to the Spotcom data, the price trend chart of adipic acid shows that a key indicator is when the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on May 18, the difference between the averages narrowed positively, and the price increase of adipic acid slowed down. At the beginning of June, the adipic acid market in China may continue to decline.

Auxiliary indicators: At the end of May, the price of adipic acid was at a low to mid-range level over 10 days, 20 days, and 30 days. In June, the momentum for an increase in the adipic acid market in China is insufficient.

To sum up: According to supply-and-demand forecasts, cost support is weakening, supply is tightening, and demand is declining. As a result, adipic acid prices showed weak upward momentum at the beginning of June. From a technical perspective, adipic acid prices experienced a slight increase in May, with limited room for further price hikes. Therefore, overall, adipic acid prices are expected to remain weak and trend downward at the beginning of June, with prices forecast to range between 9,000 CNY/ton and 9,300 CNY/ton.