MTBE Market Trends Rise First, Then Fall

November 07, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 3 to 7, the price of MTBE first increased and then decreased from 5002 CNY/ton to 4960 CNY/ton. During this period, the price slightly decreased by 0.85%, down 1.64% month-over-month, and down 5.94% year-over-year. Downstream customers have been restocking in stages, which has alleviated the inventory pressure for MTBE manufacturers, and there is a certain willingness to maintain prices. The facility utilization rate remains high, with some previously shut-down manufacturers gradually resuming production. Resource supply shows a slight increase, and the MTBE market is consolidating in a weak manner.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices declined, primarily due to several negative factors: weak global manufacturing data, heightened market concerns over sluggish demand and the risk of supply surplus, coupled with a significant increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories— all of which weighed heavily on oil prices. As of November 6, the settlement price for the January Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $63.38 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international oil prices still have room to decline. However, retail price limits for refined fuels are expected to rise this round, leaving market participants without clear guidance from the news flow. As a result, fundamental demand will likely become the primary driver influencing oil market dynamics. Meanwhile, both buyers and sellers remain cautious, adopting a rational approach amid a strong atmosphere of market wait-and-see. On the MTBE side, demand conditions continue to weigh more heavily on the downside.

Supply side: After the start-up of new material facilities at Bengu and dehydrogenation units at Lihua Yi in China, production is expected to be affected, and resource supply may increase. The supply side of MTBE is influenced by negative factors.

As of November 7, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on November 6, the Asian MTBE market saw prices rise by $3.36 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore settling at $659.47–$661.47 per ton. Meanwhile, the European MTBE market experienced a decline of $23.75 per ton from the prior session, with FOB ARA levels reported at $875.49–$875.99 per ton. In the U.S., the MTBE market closed higher by $19.94 per ton, with FOB Gulf Coast prices reaching $875.70–$876.05 per ton (equivalent to 247.26–247.36 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast: After dropping to a certain low point, the market is expected to attract buyers back into the market, potentially shifting the trading focus upward once again. An MTBE analyst notes that China's MTBE market is likely to experience primarily narrow-range fluctuations.