September 10th News
[Key Insight] In the short term, MTBE is expected to remain volatile but generally strong before facing downward pressure. Continuous price hikes by Chinese manufacturers and sustained upward trends in Asian spot markets are providing support for prices. However, current prices are at multi-cycle highs, and downstream demand lacks sufficient acceptance of these high prices, limiting the room for further short-term gains. Therefore, chasing higher prices carries relatively high risks.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Indicator | Value on 2026.9.9 (CNY/ton) | Value on 2026.9.8 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 79.60 | 74.40 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 48.71 | 52.91 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 127.14 | 127.54 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current combination of changes in the three central differences is (+, -, -), which constitutes a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is volatile (bearish).
Reason: The changes in the three differences from the previous day are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend; therefore, it is judged to be a volatile trend. Currently, there is a weak rebound with a bearish signal, and given that the price is already at a high level across multiple periods, downstream sectors such as gasoline blending are gradually becoming less accepting of high MTBE prices. There is pressure for a pullback after a short-term surge, but the high operating price of upstream raw materials like methanol and the continuous increase in Asian MTBE prices still provide some support, limiting the extent of the pullback.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
MTBE 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 5th tier (high), with very limited room for further increases. The risk of chasing high prices at this level is relatively high.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
