Manufacturers Continue to Push for Price Increases, Acrylonitrile Market Rises Slightly

November 07, News

This week, the fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, but downstream users' low-price follow-up replenishment has stimulated suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. As of November 7, the main ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports was 8,050-8,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 50-100 CNY/ton from last week; the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market was 7,900-8,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY/ton from last week.

Supply is ample:

A 130,000 ton/year acrylonitrile production line at Shandong Kerui is scheduled to undergo a short shutdown for maintenance for about a week starting from November 3. The 92,000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit at Fushun Petrochemical plans to restart in early November. During this period, supply remains ample, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory. However, in the short term, as downstream users replenish their stocks, factory inventories remain manageable, which has stimulated suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. According to statistics, as of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile plants in China reached 77.99%, with a weekly output of approximately 88,900 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The total inventory is around 52,600 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from last week.

Demand is declining:

This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries in China decreased. The capacity utilization rate for ABS was 71.6%, a decrease of 0.5% from last week; the capacity utilization rate for acrylic fiber enterprises remained at 73.39%; and the capacity utilization rate for acrylamide was 53.28%, a decrease of 0.65% from last week, leading to an overall decrease in demand for raw materials.

Cost reduction:

This week, the price of propylene in the upstream market continued to decline, weakening the cost support for acrylonitrile. As of November 7, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6000-6050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 120-150 CNY/ton from the previous weekend's 6150-6170 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, significantly improving the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8146 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the previous week. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -105 CNY/ton, an increase of 351 CNY/ton compared to the previous week.

Later forecasts indicate that the current fundamentals remain weak, with an overall loose supply. Downstream buying has once again become cautious, and there is insufficient momentum to push the market higher. In the coming period, attention should be paid to facility developments, awaiting further positive drivers.