Vendor Shipment Surge Halts Mid-October PC Price Increase

October 16th, according to news,

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in mid-October, the Chinese PC market experienced a stagnation and a price adjustment. The spot prices of some grades have declined. As of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 14,483.33 CNY/ton, with a price change rate of +0.12% compared to early October.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In the first half of October, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. As of the time of writing, the industry's operating rate is about 81%, with a weekly average output of around 68,000 tons, showing limited change from the beginning of the month. However, in the coming period, maintenance schedules for Pingmei Shenma, Lihuayi Weiyuan, Jiaxing Teijin, and Luxi Huo are set to be released in a concentrated manner. Inventory levels remain high and stagnant, with the ample supply of PC remaining unchanged. The positive impact of earlier maintenance announcements has largely been exhausted, and the market is now waiting for the actual implementation of the maintenance schedules at various polymerization plants. Overall, the supply side of PC shows a weak reality but strong expectations, providing only moderate support to PC.

Raw Materials Perspective: As shown in the chart above, the Bisphenol A market experienced a significant downward trend during the first half of October. Upstream phenol and acetone markets both suffered sharp declines, weighing heavily on the BPA market. Additionally, weak demand from the end-user side continued to persist, further driving the spot price sharply lower. Currently, market sentiment remains subdued, with traders frequently offering discounts to secure orders—a move that makes it even harder for prices to stabilize. Going forward, BPA is expected to continue its downward trajectory as it seeks a new equilibrium, while its supportive influence on PC costs is also set to weaken.

Demand Side: October remains within the traditional peak season for PC, yet this year’s “Golden October” has seen less-than-ideal downstream factory utilization rates, with inventory buildup remaining at a weakly rigid-demand level. Pre-holiday stock-building activity was muted, and post-holiday inventory digestion has been sluggish. Although maintenance shutdowns earlier in the month initially spurred spot price rallies, as these positive factors gradually fade, market trading activity has cooled down. Sellers are now focusing more on offloading goods to free up cash flow, leading to a concentrated release of profit-taking volumes and causing prices to stagnate or even decline. Meanwhile, prolonged lackluster market momentum, combined with persistently high social inventories and an oversupplied domestic market, continues to weigh heavily. Despite occasional collective price-support efforts from polymer producers, end-user companies remain wary of absorbing higher-priced supplies. As fill-in-the-gap demand was largely satisfied during the first half of the month, the pace of commodity circulation in the market has once again slowed. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains tepid.

Future Market Forecast

In mid-October, the Chinese PC market stagnated and fell back. The upstream bisphenol A market is still in a downward trend, and the cost support for PC has collapsed. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants have remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and maintenance schedules are relatively concentrated in the near future. The previous spot price of PC had already risen to a high level, and the current market trading situation is poor. It is expected that the short-term PC market may face resistance to further increases and enter a consolidation phase.