August 19 news
I. Price Trends
According to the monitored data, as of August 19th, the average price of high-grade cyclohexane for industrial use in China was 6,433 CNY/ton. The mainstream ex-factory prices in Shandong ranged from 5,956 to 6,600 CNY/ton (Hualu Hengsheng's by-product high-grade at 6,600 CNY/ton, and traders' national standard loose orders around 6,200 CNY/ton). Shenmu Fuyou's price was 5,956 CNY/ton. In the eastern high-price areas, prices were returning below 7,800 CNY/ton, with a lack of large orders and mainly small orders for rigid demand. High-end quotes had no market.
2. Market Analysis
Market Perspective: Plant Operations: Overall operating rates for cyclohexane plants in China are between 62% and 66%. Plants such as Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, and Haili have resumed operations after maintenance. Shanxi Lanhua’s 20,000-ton/year byproduct plant has been idle since July and remains shut down; however, its integrated facilities continue to supply substantial volumes of commercial products externally. Social inventories are at a medium-to-high level. Supply Characteristics: Price increases are driven primarily by rising costs, coupled with sellers holding firm on prices—this is not a price hike triggered by actual shortages. Factory inventories are medium-to-high, large orders are scarce, and traders generally offer discounts to facilitate sales. The supply side thus exhibits limited upward elasticity in terms of pricing.
On the cost front: Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene rose three times in mid-August, accumulating a total increase of 650 yuan to reach 8,000 CNY per ton. Spot prices in East China are now at 8,180–8,300 CNY per ton. Commercial inventories at Jiangsu ports have fallen to 29,000 tons (down 27.5% month-on-month and 79.86% year-on-year), hitting historically low levels as stocks continue to deplete. Marginal profit support for aromatics comes from blending oil and disproportionation activities. Regarding crude oil, heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and concerns over the safety of the Hormuz Strait shipping route have pushed WTI back above 80 USD/barrel and Brent above 91 USD/barrel. This has led to an upward shift in the cost chain—from naphtha to pure benzene and then to cyclohexane—and hydrogenated benzene prices remain relatively strong at 6,275 CNY per ton.
Downstream demand: The caprolactam industry is operating at around 68% capacity. In East China, liquid caprolactam is trading at 12,100 CNY per ton (costs are pushing prices upward, but downstream PA6 production is only about 64%, making it difficult to pass on higher costs; only those with low inventories and urgent needs are replenishing their stocks). Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: The adipic acid industry is operating at around 64% capacity. Driven by the rise in pure benzene prices, adipic acid prices have climbed to between 8,100 and 8,300 CNY per ton. However, factories are theoretically losing more than 1,000 CNY per ton, while downstream PBAT production is only at 20%, and PA66 production is below 50%, making it challenging to sustain higher prices. Cyclohexanone plants are operating at 70–75% capacity, with prices remaining relatively stable but showing a slight upward trend.
On the supply side: Price increases are driven by rising costs and supported by holders who are holding prices steady—this is not a price hike caused by actual shortages. Factory inventories are moderately high to relatively high, with few large orders. Traders are generally offering discounts to clear their stocks, so the supply side has limited upward elasticity in terms of pricing.
3. Future Market Forecast
The cyclohexane analyst believes that with extremely low inventories of pure benzene at ports and the geopolitical premium on crude oil still unresolved, cyclohexane prices are likely to rise easily but fall with difficulty. The benchmark price is expected to range between 6,500 and 6,900 CNY per ton, while ex-factory prices in Shandong are likely to remain relatively strong within the 6,200 to 6,600 CNY per ton range. However, if pure benzene surges higher and then retreats, cyclohexane prices will halt their upward trend and trade sideways, making it difficult for them to rise independently.
