August 25 news
On the 24th, the spot market for natural rubber saw a slight increase, with Shanghai rubber futures trading at high levels driving spot traders to raise their quoted prices by 50 to 150 CNY per ton. In the upstream Thai production region, raw material prices rose across the board, with increases observed in latex, cup lump rubber, and smoked sheet rubber prices. On the downstream side, China's output of rubber tires in July increased by 8.1% year-on-year, providing support to demand. The mean difference indicator suggests that the current market is in a strong, consolidating, and bullish state, with prices hovering near the upper end of a one-year cycle range, leaving relatively limited room for further price increases.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-24) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-23) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 37.5 | 96.67 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 255.83 | 245.83 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 213.75 | 191.67 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of mean difference change directions is (–, +, +), which corresponds to a strong consolidation (bullish) signal state.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is judged to be oscillating (with a bullish bias). Reason: The 5-day average difference has narrowed compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to expand. The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent, indicating an oscillating trend; however, the 10-day and 20-day average differences maintain an expanding trend, providing short-term support for a bullish market. Therefore, it is judged to be a strong consolidation with a bullish bias in an oscillating market.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The one-year price cycle for natural rubber is currently in the 5th tier (high range). According to the rules for classifying price tiers, the high-range interval has limited upside potential. Going forward, it will be crucial to monitor whether changes in market supply and demand can break the current high-price pattern.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Supplementary Market Dynamics
Upstream raw materials: On August 24, natural rubber raw material prices in Thailand saw a slight increase. Smoke sheet was quoted at 85.70 Thai baht per kilogram (+0.20 Thai baht per kilogram), latex was quoted at 76.50 Thai baht per kilogram (+1.00 Thai baht per kilogram), and cup lump was quoted at 70.00 Thai baht per kilogram (+0.50 Thai baht per kilogram).
Spot market: On August 24, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region of China saw a slight increase in prices. The mainstream price for 2024 Yunnan Bao/Guangken/Haibao was 17,600 to 17,750 CNY per ton; the mainstream price for 2025 Yunnan Bao/Guangken/Haibao was 17,700 to 17,900 CNY per ton; and the mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L was 18,650 to 18,800 CNY per ton.
Downstream demand: In July 2026, China's output of rubber tire casings reached 102.658 million units, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady performance on the demand side.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
