BDO Market Conditions Remain Stagnant and Consolidating

November 14th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 10 to 14, the BDO price in China adjusted to 7,442 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.31% week-over-week and a decrease of 15.28% year-over-year. Many facilities have restarted, weakening the supply-side support. However, due to long-term industry losses, suppliers still aim to stabilize the market. Downstream demand has increased, but under cost pressure, contract follow-up is slow, and spot purchases are light with negotiations. The supply and demand dynamics have intensified, making it difficult for the market to find a stable center.

Supply side: In terms of facilities, although the Sichuan Yongying plant has been shut down for maintenance, plants such as Guotai Xinhua and Great Wall Energy have restarted. The industry's capacity utilization rate has increased to around 56%, leading to an increase in supply, which has intensified cautious sentiment among market participants. The positive factors for BDO supply have weakened.

Statistics on the operational status of equipment at selected manufacturing enterprises:

Cost Perspective:
Regarding raw materials, the price of calcium carbide feedstock—specifically, semi-coke—has increased by 60 CNY per ton, further intensifying cost pressures on calcium carbide producers and deepening their financial losses. Under this cost pressure, more production units have been shut down for maintenance, leading to a slight decline in supply. As a result, inventory levels in regional markets have noticeably decreased.

On the other hand, methanol prices remain weak across China. As of 10:00 a.m. on November 14, the reference price for methanol at Taicang, China, stood at 2,070 CNY per ton. With both calcium carbide and methanol markets trending downward, these conditions are creating negative cost factors for BDO production.

Demand Side: The downstream PTMEG industry has seen its main players, including Guotai and Meike, resume operations after maintenance shutdowns, leading to increased PBT industry activity. Meanwhile, other downstream sectors maintain stable load levels. As a result, overall demand-driven consumption has risen. However, many downstream industries are under significant profit pressure, prompting them to mostly stick to contractual commitments rather than engaging in spot purchases. This has resulted in subdued spot market activity and ongoing price negotiations. On the BDO side, demand conditions remain weighed down by bearish factors.

Market Forecast: On the supply side, plant maintenance at Sichuan Yongying has led to a slight reduction in output. Meanwhile, downstream industry demand remains largely unchanged, continuing to meet essential needs while still being accompanied by price negotiations. BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to remain weakly stable overall.