Ethanol Market Prices Show Slight Fluctuations

November 14th, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 10 to 14, the price of ethanol in China adjusted to 5268 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.20% month-over-month and 4.55% year-over-year. The price of ethanol in China remained weak and stable, with moderate trading activity and a high level of bearish sentiment in the market.

Cost Perspective: From the cost side, corn prices have edged up slightly, as major mills continue to absorb lower-priced grain purchased earlier. Meanwhile, favorable factors supporting ethanol costs are weakening.

Supply side, the northeastern region of China stands out, with an overall operating rate as high as 92.43%, significantly higher than the national level. Specifically, major enterprises in Heilongjiang Province have been continuously operating at overcapacity, and other operational factories in the region are also maintaining full production, collectively driving up the overall operating load in the northeastern region. Several enterprises that were previously shut down have recently resumed production, which has had a negative impact on the ethanol supply.

On the demand side, taking ethyl acetate in the downstream chemical industry as an example, Anhui Huayi's production facility has resumed operations. This is expected to lead to a short-term increase in operating rates, as factories are now more motivated to produce—thanks to recent cost reductions that have turned profits positive across the board. As a result, ethanol consumption is set to rise. Overall, the demand side for ethanol is leaning toward positive factors.

Market Forecast: Plant operations remain stable, while demand remains limited, leading to prices that are expected to stay weak. Ethanol analysts anticipate that the ethanol market will likely trend downward in the near term.