This week, the coke market in China has been stable with a slightly stronger trend (11.17-11.22)

November 22, News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: On November 22, 2025, the average price was 1,538 CNY per ton. The fourth round of price increases has been fully implemented, with major steel mills raising prices by 50-55 CNY per ton. The coking coal market supply is tight, and coking coal prices have mainly risen this week.

II. Market Analysis

Price Perspective: The fourth round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with coking enterprises maintaining steady operations. Meanwhile, the supply of metallurgical coal remains tight, providing some support at the cost end. Inventory levels within the market remain stable, while demand continues to offer moderate backing.

Inventory: As of November 2025, the total inventory of coking coal in China was 23,271,800 tons, with a slight increase month-over-month. Among these, steel mill inventories decreased by 1.13%, coke plant inventories increased by 1.67%, and coal mine inventories decreased.

Supply Side: In 2025, due to safety regulations, China's coking coal production is expected to decline to 488 million tons, a reduction of about 16 million tons. However, the policy focuses on ensuring supply, so the actual contraction will be limited.

In terms of production capacity: In 2025, the capacity utilization rates in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, the main coking coal-producing regions, are expected to fluctuate with steel demand. Large enterprises may see utilization rates 15% higher than those of small and medium-sized businesses.

III. Market Forecast

Coke analysts believe: In the short term, coke supply is affected by a mix of factors including coking coal inventory, environmental production limits, and the operating rates of coke plants, leading to high-level fluctuations. Attention needs to be paid to the intensity of policy implementation and changes in downstream steel demand in China.