September 24th report:
According to SpotCom data, the price of acetic acid continued to rise in September. As of September 23, the average market price of acetic acid in China was 4,603 CNY/ton, an increase of 35.39% from 3,400 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.
Within the month, the price of acetic acid has increased significantly. Overall, the price of acetic acid has been driven by multiple factors, including rising costs, tight supply, and strong downstream demand, leading to a substantial increase in the price of acetic acid. Specifically:
Upstream cost pressures have increased: In the first half of the month, international oil prices rose, driving up the methanol market. Afterwards, methanol prices remained high and volatile. Acetic acid companies faced significant cost pressure, with strong support from the cost side for acetic acid. Market sentiment was bullish, leading to higher quotes from acetic acid companies.
Enterprise inventories remain low: Since September, although acetic acid operating rates have hovered around 80%, indicating relatively strong industry performance, overall inventory levels across the sector remain subdued. Plants such as Tianjin Alkali, Shanghai Huayi, and Hualu Hengsheng have either reduced output or shut down for maintenance, tightening spot supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand is picking up, with improving order books, further pushing prices higher.
Stable demand support: During the traditional peak season, downstream acetate plants have maintained relatively high operating rates, bolstering procurement volumes and sustaining a decent trading atmosphere, which in turn has kept acetate prices firm at elevated levels.
Positive factors on the export front: Affected by geopolitical tensions, acetic acid production costs have remained elevated, prompting several overseas acetic acid plants to cut output or shut down. As the world’s largest producer of acetic acid, China recorded cumulative acetic acid exports of 936,500 tons from January to August, up 23.68% year-on-year. The increase in China’s acetic acid exports has helped tighten domestic spot supply, further driving prices higher.
Market outlook: In the short term, the acetic acid market is expected to be supported by multiple positive factors, with prices likely to remain firm and consolidate ahead of the holiday.
In the longer term, although upstream methanol prices have eased somewhat, they remain relatively high, with cost‑based support still in place. Downstream demand shows limited tolerance for elevated pricing, potentially dampening purchasing activity. On the supply side, as maintenance‑scheduled units come back online, output is gradually rising; however, INEOS recently announced the shutdown of Europe’s last world‑class acetic acid plant, which includes a 500,000‑ton‑per‑year acetic acid facility and downstream acetate and ethyl acetate production lines. This closure will further boost acetic acid export volumes.
Overall, it is expected that the acetic acid market in China will fluctuate at high levels in the future. Specific attention should be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up situation.
