September 30 report:
In September 2026, the Chinese bisphenol A market showed a continuous upward trend, with the market focus steadily rising, ending the previous weak and volatile situation. Data shows that at the beginning of the month, the spot price of bisphenol A in the East China market was about 9,850 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, it had risen to 11,200 CNY/ton, with a cumulative price increase of over 1,300 CNY/ton, representing a 13.7% increase. The trading atmosphere in the industry significantly improved. This round of price increases was driven by multiple positive factors including cost support, supply reduction, and peak season stocking. The market fundamentals continued to improve, but the growth rate slowed and there was a slight fluctuation at the end of the month, making the future trend a focal point of industry attention.
The strong upward trend in the cost side is the core support for this round of BPA price increases. In September, the upstream phenol market continued to rise, with the listed price increasing by 400-500 CNY/ton within the month. The price of acetone remained stable with a slight increase, and the overall cost of BPA raw materials shifted upward, completely reversing the previous situation of cost inversion and low profits. Previously, the BPA industry in China had been in a state of long-term loss, with the average gross profit from January to September declining significantly year-on-year, putting significant pressure on producers. The rise in raw material prices has driven the recovery of product value, coupled with the relatively strong performance of international oil prices, continuously strengthening the cost support logic of the industrial chain, providing a solid foundation for the upward trend in BPA prices.
Supply-side constraints have continued to push the market higher. In September, several bisphenol A plants in China entered maintenance and reduced load states, with the overall industry operating at a low level. Among them, Nantong Xingchen's 150,000-ton/year plant was completely shut down for maintenance, and the main plant of Jiangsu Ruiheng was operating at only 60-70% capacity, significantly reducing the available spot supply in the market. Overall, the average weekly operating rate of the bisphenol A industry in the third quarter was only around 65%, a significant drop compared to the same period last year. Corporate inventories remained low, with tight spot circulation, and suppliers were firm on prices, leading to a continuous upward shift in market negotiation prices.
On the demand side, the peak season's recovery provided effective support. September is traditionally the "Golden September" peak season for the chemical industry, during which the operating rates of downstream epoxy resins and polycarbonate industries steadily increased, and terminal industries such as coatings, electronics, and plastics released their stocking demands. Downstream companies showed strong intentions to restock before the holiday, with active trading of essential goods effectively absorbing the available spot resources in the market. However, as prices continued to rise, downstream buyers became more cautious about purchasing at high prices, mainly opting for procurement based on immediate needs, with fewer instances of large-scale stockpiling. This, to some extent, limited the potential for a sharp price increase, resulting in a slowing of the upward trend and a narrow range of fluctuations by the end of the month.
Looking ahead, the short-term bisphenol A market in China may maintain a high-level fluctuation with a slightly stronger trend, and the probability of significant price increases or decreases is low. On the supply side, the resumption of production from maintenance facilities is slow, making it difficult to quickly reverse the current situation of low operating rates and low inventory levels. The tight supply of spot goods will continue, providing ongoing support for prices. In terms of costs, the prices of upstream phenol and acetone raw materials remain firm, and the cost support remains strong, which will sustain the trend of industry profit recovery.
From the demand side, after the National Day holiday, downstream restocking demand may be released in a phased manner, supporting the market demand. However, the overall demand resilience of the terminal industries is average, and high prices are a constraint, limiting the increase in demand. In the medium to long term, as more maintenance facilities resume production, the supply will gradually increase, alleviating the tight balance between supply and demand, and the momentum for price increases may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of the Chinese bisphenol A market remain solid, with prices staying firm at high levels in the short term. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to the progress of facility resumption, fluctuations in raw material prices, and the actual demand during the peak season.
