Ethylene Glycol Prices Keep Falling, Raising Expectations for Maintenance at Coal-to-Ethylene Glycol Plants

November 27 news

In November, the price of ethylene glycol in China shifted downward.

In November, the price of ethylene glycol continued to fall, with the price center shifting downward. Recently, the price has started to stabilize. According to data, as of November 27, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4056.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.89% from the average price of 4220.83 CNY/ton on November 1.

In terms of ethylene glycol at Chinese ports, the basis for spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) has weakened due to low trading sentiment and low willingness of traders to stockpile. The basis for near-term contracts has weakened significantly. As of November 27, the range of intraday basis transactions for this week's contracts was +8 to +12; by the close, the basis quotes for next week's contracts were +9 to +11, for December-end contracts +16 to +18, and for January-end contracts +28 to +31.

The spot price of coal-to-polyester grade monoethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for a full truckload is 3770-3880 CNY/ton.

Regarding ethylene glycol on the international market, as of November 26, recently negotiated spot prices for delivered cargoes have been around USD 460–464 per ton.

Main reasons for the November ethylene glycol price decline:

In November, the price of ethylene glycol fell, mainly due to the expectation of new production capacity release in China, increased imports, and inventory accumulation at ports; the market traded on the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand, coupled with concentrated arrivals at ports, which accelerated the decline in prices.

The main reason for the recent stabilization of ethylene glycol prices in China:

On the import side, there are expectations of a weakening winter supply from Iran. On November 24, market rumors indicated that two Iranian ethylene glycol plants with a combined annual capacity of 3.3 million tons had been shut down, and an additional four plants with a combined annual capacity of 7.25 million tons were scheduled to halt operations, expected to occur in late November or early December.

On the supply side in China, the weekly production of ethylene glycol has decreased, with an increase in load reduction for the synthesis gas method and a slight load reduction for integrated processes. Additionally, there are plans for maintenance on ethylene process facilities later on. Recently, expectations for plant maintenance in coal-based production have risen, which may help stabilize or even halt the decline in ethylene glycol prices.