July 24 news
I. Price Trends
According to the monitored data, as of July 24, the average price of high-grade industrial cyclohexane in China was 6,166 CNY per ton. The overall cyclohexane market showed a stable but slightly weak fluctuation pattern. The main ex-factory quotations in Shandong region were in the range of 5,956-6,600 CNY per ton. The high-price areas in East China saw a slight downward adjustment, and the market transactions were mainly small orders based on rigid demand, with a lack of large orders.
II. Market Analysis
In terms of market analysis: The current market is in a seasonal low season, and the supply-demand contradiction is particularly pronounced. On the supply side, spot inventory levels are ample, while traders and enterprises hold moderately high inventories, leading to frequent price concessions under pressure to sell. On the demand side, purchasing power remains weak, and downstream buyers show only moderate acceptance of current price levels, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing. As a result, negotiation focuses have generally shifted toward lower price ranges, and regional price differentials have widened (Shandong around 6,700 CNY/ton, East China around 7,800 CNY/ton).
On the cost front: In recent times, upstream pure benzene prices have been consolidating at lower levels or fluctuating at high levels. The strength of cost support has eased somewhat compared to earlier periods, though rigid support remains in place. Fluctuations in raw material prices are directly transmitted to the cyclohexane production stage, squeezing manufacturers’ profit margins and leaving them with insufficient room to hold prices steady. Regarding crude oil linkage: The volatile adjustments in international crude oil prices are impacting pure benzene and hydrogenation costs through the petrochemical industry chain. Currently, there is no clear one-sided trend—neither a sharp rise nor a sharp fall—in costs, which provides some floor support for cyclohexane prices but lacks strong upward momentum.
Downstream demand: Core downstream sectors such as caprolactam, adipic acid, and cyclohexanone have facility utilization rates maintained at around 70%-75%. However, the terminal nylon, chemical fiber, and textile industries in China are in the traditional off-season, with insufficient orders, only maintaining stable procurement to meet essential needs without any incremental demand. For solvents and other applications, sectors like coatings, pharmaceutical intermediates, and general solvents are affected by environmental policies and the off-season, resulting in low operating rates and weak purchasing intentions. There is a gradual shift towards substitutes or delayed purchases, making it difficult to form effective demand support.
Operating Rate: Cyclohexane Plants—The average operating rate in China has remained steady at 62%-66% (with some major plants running at full capacity of 75%-80% during certain periods). Key plants such as Luxi and Hualu Hengsheng are operating smoothly. Earlier maintenance shutdowns have led to the resumption of previously idled production capacity, resulting in an increase in available supply and a continued easing of supply conditions. In terms of industrial chain integration, the load of integrated plants producing caprolactam remains stable, while the market release of commercial cyclohexane has increased significantly, further accelerating the accumulation of social inventories.
3. Future Market Forecast
The cyclohexane analyst believes that the cyclohexane market lacks strong upward momentum in the short term and is likely to remain in a narrow range of weak fluctuations or trading sideways. Negative factors include: the continuation of the off-season for demand, high inventory levels that still need to be digested, and limited cost support from pure benzene unless there’s a strong rebound. The expected price range is likely to fluctuate between 6,000 and 6,900 CNY per ton (with a reference price around 6,600 CNY per ton in Shandong). High prices in East China may face some downward pressure for minor adjustments.
