Weak Demand Weighs on Butadiene Market in November

November 27th, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the Chinese butadiene market showed a fluctuating trend in November 2025. From November 1 to 30, the price of butadiene in China decreased from 7,516.67 CNY/ton to 7,050 CNY/ton, with a decline of 6.21% during the period.

Early in the month: At the beginning of the month, China’s butadiene market operated on a weak note, experiencing a broad-based decline. As prices continued to fall, some downstream buyers took advantage of lower prices to replenish their inventories, which helped improve trading sentiment in the spot market and led to a slight rebound in spot prices. However, given that downstream terminal demand remained persistently weak and supply conditions continued to be bearish, the butadiene market as a whole remained under pressure and continued to operate on the weaker side amid these dual headwinds.

Late month: After entering the late month, the butadiene market in China first rose then fell, showing a range-bound fluctuation. From the supply perspective, the overall supply remains relatively loose recently. As prices increased, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market significantly decreased. Additionally, the recent weak performance of the synthetic rubber market has led to a weakening trend in the butadiene market.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, after entering the latter half of the month, the butadiene market first rose and then fell, experiencing volatile fluctuations. From the supply side, overall supply remains relatively ample recently. As prices climbed higher, downstream buyers became noticeably less active in entering the market. Coupled with the recent weak performance of the synthetic rubber market, the butadiene market has turned downward. As of the 26th, the settlement price for the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $58.65 per barrel, while the settlement price for the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $62.54 per barrel.

Supply side: As of November 27, the listed price of butadiene by Sinopec's sales companies is 7100 CNY/ton, a decrease of 800 CNY/ton from the same period last month.

Shenghong Refining's 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with an increase of 200 CNY/ton, now priced at 7050 CNY/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 224 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 7,000 CNY/ton.

The 90,000-ton-per-year butadiene unit at Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical is operating normally. The price has been raised by 100 CNY/ton, bringing the current price to 7,000 CNY/ton.

Demand Side: During this period, the Chinese market for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber first saw prices rise and then fall, with an overall slight increase. On the one hand, the price of butadiene feedstock—a key raw material—rose slightly from its low levels, weakening the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. On the other hand, some previously shut-down production units have resumed operations, leading to a modest increase in the operating rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants. Meanwhile, downstream tire production remains largely stable, providing solid, albeit modest, demand support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Overall, the fundamentals of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber remain relatively weak. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of November 24, the market for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the northwest region showed slight consolidation. Currently, mainstream quotes for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande range from 10,500 to 10,700 CNY per ton.

Market Forecast: In the previous period, the butadiene market showed signs of recovery, with prices tentatively rising. However, downstream buyers have become noticeably less active, and current spot market trading remains moderate. Overall, the butadiene supply situation is relatively loose, while downstream demand remains weak. The synthetic rubber market is also trending downward, lacking positive catalysts. Therefore, we expect the butadiene market to continue fluctuating weakly in the near term, with particular attention paid to downstream purchasing demand.