August 27 news
The current Chinese butadiene market was previously supported by tight spot supply, which led to a continuous increase in prices. On August 26, Sinopec's quotations in the East China, North China, and Central China regions were all at 125,000 CNY per ton. However, after the spot price rose to a high level, downstream purchasing intentions were suppressed, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises are actively shipping goods, but there is insufficient momentum for prices to continue rising. Based on the analysis using the mean difference method, it is determined that butadiene is currently in a deep correction phase, and in the short term, it is likely to maintain a high-level volatile trend with limited upside potential.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Indicator | Value as of August 26, 2026 | Value as of August 25, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average difference (D5) | 126.66 | 360.00 | - |
| 10-day average difference (D10) | 230.00 | 286.67 | - |
| 20-day average difference (D20) | 702.34 | 691.50 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change combination is (-, -, +), indicating a deep pullback (bearish, with a corrective nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in butadiene prices in China is fluctuating.
Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods are not entirely consistent in direction compared to the previous day, failing to meet the condition for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, it is judged as a fluctuating trend. From a fundamental perspective, the previous tight supply of spot goods in China and the increase in factory prices by manufacturers provided support at the bottom. However, with the current price reaching a high level, downstream demand is mainly driven by necessity, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The increased enthusiasm of companies to ship goods also supports the judgment of high-level fluctuations.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
In the 60-day and 3-month cycles, the butadiene price in China is at the 5th level (high), with limited room for further short-term increases; in the 1-year cycle, the price is at the 3rd level (medium), with relatively balanced long-term potential for increases and decreases.
Five, Fundamental Dynamics
Ex-factory and auction prices: On August 26, Dongming Petrochemical set a floor price of 12,300 CNY per ton for the external sale of 196 tons of butadiene, while Satellite Chemical set a starting bid price of 12,200 CNY per ton for the external sale of 336 tons. On the same day, Sinopec’s listed prices for butadiene in the East China, North China, and Central China regions all stood at 12,500 CNY per ton, while Sinopec’s South China region quoted 12,400 CNY per ton; quotes remain stable for now.
International Market: On August 25, European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1,095–1,103 per ton, and FD Northwest Europe closed at EUR 1,085–1,093 per ton; in the Asian market, South Korea FOB was quoted at USD 1,445–1,453 per ton, while China CFR was quoted at USD 1,505–1,513 per ton.
Supply and Demand Situation: In the earlier period, China’s spot supply of butadiene was relatively tight, prompting manufacturers to continuously raise factory prices and boost market sentiment. Downstream demand for phased restocking further supported price increases. However, as spot prices have now risen to high levels, downstream purchasing intentions have been dampened. Most downstream buyers are adopting a rigid-demand procurement approach and maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Consequently, companies have become more proactive in offering goods for sale, leading to slightly subdued spot trading activity and a lack of further upward momentum.
Industry chain linkage: The relatively strong prices of upstream naphtha and C4 fractions—byproducts of ethylene cracking—provide cost support. Downstream producers of products such as styrene-butadiene rubber, SBS, and ABS maintain stable operating rates, with rigid demand-driven procurement being the primary focus; for now, there are no large-scale inventory-building plans.
6. Trend Chart Display
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
