If overseas positive news materializes, the December ethylene glycol market in China will likely show a wide-range fluctuation trend

November 28 news

In November, the price center of ethylene glycol in China shifted downward.

In November, the price of ethylene glycol continued to fall, with a downward shift in the price level, but recently, the price has started to stabilize. According to data, as of November 28, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.05% from the average price of 4,220.83 CNY/ton on November 1.

In terms of ethylene glycol at Chinese ports, the basis for spot contracts of ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) at the ports has weakened significantly. This week, the intraday basis for the contracts has weakened and started to trade at a discount to the futures. Today, the intraday basis quotes for this week's contracts range from +8 to -5. As of the close on November 28th, the basis quotes for next week's contracts are +5 to +6, for December contracts +18 to +20, and for January contracts +33 to +35.

The spot price of coal-to-polyester grade monoethylene glycol in China (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) for a full truckload is 3720-3880 CNY/ton.

In the overseas ethylene glycol market, as of November 26, the recent cargo arrival prices were negotiated and transacted around $460-462 per ton.

Changes to the Ethylene Glycol Unit in December 2025:

In December 2025, the dynamics of ethylene glycol plants will cover reduced capacity at Chinese facilities, maintenance activities, and increases from new plants. Overseas, there are plans for plant shutdowns and delays in restarting operations. Specific details are as follows:

Chinese facility

A facility in Zhejiang to reduce its load: Market rumors indicate that an ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang, with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons, is scheduled to begin operating at reduced load starting in December. Specific details regarding the extent of the load reduction and the subsequent adjustment pace have not yet been disclosed.

The impact of previous shutdowns at certain facilities continues, while new facilities are contributing incremental output: In November, China saw the shutdown of ethylene glycol plants including Guangxi Huayi’s 200,000-ton plant, Hong Sifang’s 300,000-ton plant, and Sinochem Quanzhou’s 500,000-ton plant (rumors awaiting verification). Together, these shutdowns have resulted in a total capacity loss of 1 million tons. If these facilities fail to resume operations by December, their impact on monthly supply will persist. Meanwhile, a new 830,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol plant in South China—originally scheduled for commissioning in the first quarter of 2026—has advanced its startup phase and begun trial runs using ethylene feedstock in early November. This plant is expected to bring a small additional increase in market supply in December.

Ethylene process units have maintenance plans: There are maintenance plans for ethylene process units in China's ethylene glycol sector, but the specific names of the units to be maintained, their production capacities, and the duration of the maintenance in December have not yet been clarified. The actual implementation of the maintenance may affect the total supply of ethylene glycol for that month.

Overseas facility

Several Iranian plants are scheduled to shut down: According to market reports on November 24, four Iranian ethylene glycol plants with a combined annual capacity of 7.25 million tons are set to halt operations from late November to early December. As of November 28, the actual implementation of these shutdowns remains to be seen. If the shutdowns proceed smoothly in December, global ethylene glycol supply will be significantly reduced. Earlier reports also indicated that two additional Iranian ethylene glycol plants, with a combined annual capacity of 3.3 million tons, have already been shut down. If these plants remain offline through December without restarting, their continued shutdown will further impact supply.

Singapore’s plant restart delayed: A Singapore-based ethylene glycol plant with an annual production capacity of 900,000 tons was previously scheduled to resume operations around the end of December 2025. However, the restart has now been postponed, and no specific resumption plan has been announced yet. The plant has been shut down since around August 2025, and this delay in restarting will result in overseas ethylene glycol supplies in December being unable to benefit from the additional capacity provided by this plant.

Ethylene Glycol Market Forecast for December 2025

Combining the market performance in November and the core variables on both the supply and demand sides, the ethylene glycol market in China in December 2025 is likely to exhibit a wide-range fluctuation. The price range is expected to focus between 3750-4050 CNY/ton. The bullish and bearish factors on the supply and demand sides will interact, and the cost and inventory factors will also play a key role in constraining the market. The specific forecast is as follows:

Supply side: A mix of bullish and bearish factors is restraining significant fluctuations in supply.

Positive factors stand out: Iran’s planned shutdown of production units represents the biggest supply-side variable for December. According to reports on November 24, Iran has already shut down two units with a combined capacity of 3.3 million tons per year, and an additional four units with a combined capacity of 7.25 million tons per year are scheduled to halt operations from late November to early December. If these shutdowns materialize, global ethylene glycol production capacity will shrink by 8%, reducing daily supply by approximately 20,000 tons and significantly tightening global supply. Moreover, a 900,000-ton-per-year unit in Singapore, originally slated to restart at the end of December, now faces a delayed restart with no clear timeline yet. The capacity gap since its August shutdown has persisted, leaving no viable replacement for overseas supply in December. On the Chinese side, Shenghong Refining & Chemical’s 1-million-ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in early December, and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 800,000-ton unit is also planning to reduce its output starting in December, further curtailing some production capacity.

Negative factors still exist: The continuous release of new production capacity in China is bringing ongoing supply pressure. Ningxia Changyi's 200,000-ton new facility and BASF's 830,000-ton new facility have advanced to the trial commissioning stage in November and are expected to contribute to actual production volume in December. Additionally, Shenghong Petrochemical's 900,000-ton facility is scheduled to restart by the end of November. These new and restarted capacities will offset some of the reduction in output due to maintenance. Meanwhile, the overall operating load of China's ethylene glycol industry reached over 72% in November. Although some facilities have reduced their loads for maintenance, the overall industry operating level remains relatively high, providing a basic support for December's supply.

Demand side: Short-term support exists, but long-term weakness looms.

Short-term support remains strong: The current operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has remained at a high level above 91%, and the industry’s profitability and inventory levels are both healthy. Short-term operating levels are expected to stay stable, providing solid fundamental support for ethylene glycol demand. Moreover, in early November, Indian buyers significantly increased their purchases of FDY due to policy adjustments, leading to a notable rise in orders for filament exports. Additionally, processing fees for bottle flakes have continued to recover, which to some extent has boosted the release of ethylene glycol demand. This positive trend is likely to persist into early December.

A gradual weakening over the medium to long term: As December ushers in the traditional off-season for the textile industry, end-customer weaving orders have already begun to show signs of a high-level pullback with the onset of colder weather, making it increasingly difficult to deplete existing grey fabric inventories. Moreover, as the New Year’s Day approaches, some weaving manufacturers may see workers returning home, leading to a concentrated drop in operating rates. This, in turn, will ripple through to the polyester segment, causing polyester utilization rates to decline and ultimately weakening demand for ethylene glycol. This off-season effect will become increasingly evident as December progresses.

Costs and Inventory: Cost floor supports prices, while inventory accumulation suppresses price increases.

The cost side is forming bottom support: Currently, the marginal coal-to-ethylene glycol plants have seen their cash flow fall below the cost line. In November, the marginal profit from coal-to-ethylene glycol turned into a loss of 784 CNY per ton. If prices continue to decline in December, approaching around 3,700 CNY per ton, this is expected to trigger stronger support on the supply side. As companies become more inclined to cut production due to losses, it will help curb further price declines. On the oil-to-ethylene glycol front, although crude oil prices remain volatile and provide only limited support, they won't significantly drag down ethylene glycol costs. Overall, the cost floor will serve as a key constraint on December’s market performance.

Inventory pressure suppresses upward price elasticity: Since November, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol at Chinese ports has continued to accumulate. With poor shipments from the ports during the week, it is expected that the trend of small-scale inventory accumulation will continue in December. The gradual increase in port inventory makes the market more liquid, weakening the momentum for a price rebound. Even if there is a sudden reduction in supply, the inventory can act as a buffer, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly.

Overall, in December, ethylene glycol is expected to find bottom support amid positive factors such as the shutdown of Iranian plants. However, negative factors—including the release of new production capacity, accumulating inventories, and a seasonal slowdown in demand—will likely curb price increases. Therefore, we forecast that the spot price range for ethylene glycol in December will fluctuate widely within the 3,750–4,050 CNY/ton range.