Inventory Accumulation Expectations Remain, PTA Prices Continue to Fluctuate and Weaken

December 14th, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, in December, the PTA market in China experienced a slight downward fluctuation. As of December 14, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4,639 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the beginning of the month.

Recently, risks on the crude oil supply side have yet to be eliminated. Concerns about reduced crude oil supplies due to heightened geopolitical tensions continue to provide support for oil prices. However, demand for crude oil shows no signs of improvement. Overall, international oil prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. As of December 11, the settlement price for the January contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $57.60 per barrel, while the settlement price for the February contract of Brent crude oil futures was $61.28 per barrel. Although some PX units have resumed operations after brief shutdowns and the atmosphere surrounding oil blending has eased somewhat, further increases in PX plant maintenance activities suggest a potential decline in operating rates, providing strong support from the lower end.

In terms of domestic supply, there are no plans to adjust PTA facilities. Some plants that were shut down in November have not yet restarted, such as the 2.2 million ton facility of Yisheng Ningbo, which stopped on November 20; the 2.5 million ton facility of Dushan Energy, which stopped on November 5; and the 1.1 million ton facility of Zhuhai BP, which stopped on November 6. The supply remains stable, with the overall industry operating rate around 73%.

Downstream polyester plant operations have not changed much, maintaining a high operating rate of around 86%. Since entering December, the trading atmosphere in the filament yarn market has been rather quiet, with factory inventories continuously increasing and a stronger desire to ship goods. The enthusiasm of end-user textile enterprises for purchasing raw materials has decreased, and there has not been any concentrated large-scale restocking.

Analysts believe that as Christmas approaches, seasonal demand is picking up, which may provide support to oil prices. Some polyester plants in China may arrange for early holidays, leading to an expected decline in weaving machine operating rates. Currently, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and it is predicted that PTA prices will show a downward trend with fluctuations.