Demand Shifts: Butadiene Market Rises First, Then Falls

November 24th, according to news,

According to the commodity market analysis system, the butadiene market in China fluctuated and rose during this period. From November 17 to November 24, 2025, the price of butadiene increased from 6,966.67 CNY/ton to 7,066.67 CNY/ton, a rise of 1.44%. The butadiene market in China first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. Recently, the butadiene market has been relatively strong. In terms of supply, the overall supply remains relatively loose. As prices have risen, the willingness of downstream buyers to enter the market has clearly weakened. Additionally, the recent weakness in the synthetic rubber market has led to a weakening trend in the butadiene market.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, as of November 21, the settlement price for the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $58.06 per barrel, while the February Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $61.94 per barrel. This week, OPEC+ announced a new round of production increases, yet the market remains concerned about the long-term risk of supply surplus. Meanwhile, regional tensions have eased somewhat, but weaker U.S. demand, coupled with ongoing U.S. tariff issues weighing on global economic growth and dampening demand expectations, have led to a slight decline in international oil prices.

Supply side: Sinopec's various sales companies are listing the price of butadiene at 7,200 CNY per ton.

Shenghong Petrochemical's 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of 200 CNY/ton, now priced at 7,100 CNY/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 224 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 7100 CNY/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical 90,000-ton/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price reduction of 200 CNY/ton, now priced at 7,100 CNY/ton.

Demand Side: According to the commodity market analysis system, as of November 19, the price of styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) in the East China market stood at 11,050 CNY/ton, down 2.07% from the beginning of the month (11,283 CNY/ton) but up 4.25% compared to the cycle’s low of 10,600 CNY/ton. On one hand, raw material support remains weak; on the other hand, downstream tire production has been uneven, providing only moderate demand support for SBR. Meanwhile, SBR plant operating rates have edged slightly higher, yet the overall fundamentals of the SBR market remain weak, leading to a generally sluggish and volatile market trend. As of November 21, mainstream quotes for SBR grade 1502 from suppliers like Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China ranged around 10,950 to 11,200 CNY/ton.

Market Forecast: In the earlier period, the butadiene market experienced consecutive price increases, yet downstream buyers became noticeably less active, leading to moderate trading activity in the spot market. Overall, the current supply situation for butadiene remains relatively ample, while downstream demand remains weak. Without any significant positive catalysts, the butadiene market is expected to continue its predominantly sideways and volatile trend in the near term. Key attention should be paid to downstream purchasing intentions.