August 13th, according to reports
Recent international crude oil prices have consecutively increased, with significant price increases in U.S. WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts. Refined oil prices in the northeastern and northwestern regions of China have also risen in tandem, with gasoline spot prices continuing to trend upward. The spread indicators show a clear upward trend in gasoline prices, but the current prices are at a high level within a 1-year cycle, as well as at 60-day and 3-month highs, limiting short-term upside potential. It is necessary to closely monitor developments in the crude oil market and changes in the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-12) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-11) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 94.14 | 70.47 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 31.74 | 9.40 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 44.50 | 42.50 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
Three differences all show a positive change compared to the previous day, indicating a clear upward trend.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions
The price trend is clearly upward. Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences compared to yesterday are all showing positive growth, and their directions are completely consistent, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend in the average difference method; at the same time, international crude oil prices have been rising continuously, and gasoline quotes from Chinese independent refineries have also increased, with fundamentals supporting the price increase.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited short-term upside potential.
Price position in the 3-month cycle: High, with significant downward pressure above.
Price position within the 1-year cycle: Mid-to-high range; there is still some room for upward movement, but caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback.
Overall, the current gasoline price in China is at a short-term high and a mid-term relatively high position. The space for a significant short-term increase is limited. If crude oil prices decline subsequently, there is a possibility of a correction in gasoline prices.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Industrial Chain Dynamics
Upstream: The rise in fuel oil and crude oil prices supports the cost of gasoline in China.
Downstream: The demand for methanol gasoline is stable, providing some support to gasoline prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
