BDO Market Conditions Remain Stale and Await Further Developments

December 19th, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from December 12 to 19, the BDO price in China remained at 7,537 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.15% month-over-month and 13.45% year-over-year. The BDO market in China is stagnant with a wait-and-see attitude, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to intensified supply-demand competition and fluctuation within a certain range.

Supply Side, in terms of facilities, the third phase of Lantian Tunhe has restarted, and the Yan Chang Petroleum facility is operating at increased load. However, Sichuan Tianhua, Shaanxi Heima, and Chongqing Jianfeng remain in a state of plant maintenance. Other facilities are operating relatively stably. The supply of BDO in the market has increased, and the support from the supply side has weakened. The supply side of BDO is influenced by bearish factors.

Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Facilities:

Cost Perspective: Regarding raw material calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market is trending downward. On the supply side, due to the orderly power consumption policies in Inner Mongolia and short-term maintenance at some facilities in Wuhai, the operational stability of calcium carbide production has declined, leading to a slight contraction in supply volume. As for the raw material methanol, Chinese methanol prices have been weakening. As of 10:00 a.m. on December 19, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, stood at around 2,150 CNY per ton. With calcium carbide prices declining and methanol prices expected to rise, the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

Demand Side: Downstream PBT operating rates have increased, while other industries remain largely unchanged, leading to higher consumption of raw materials. However, under continued cost pressure, companies are still adhering to contractual agreements. Spot transactions are sluggish, with limited activity and ongoing price negotiations. The impact on BDO demand is mixed, with both positive and negative factors at play.

Market Outlook: Supply is expected to increase while demand may decline, keeping commercial negotiations and market dynamics in a state of ongoing uncertainty and volatility. Some plants are ramping up operations, leading to an increase in supply volumes. BDO analysts forecast that the Chinese BDO market will remain largely stable for now.