September 4th news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 28 to September 4, the BDO price in China increased from 8,091 CNY/ton to 8,375 CNY/ton, rising by 3.50% during the period, up 7.60% month-over-month, and up 11.03% year-over-year. The BDO market remained firm and on an upward trend, with industry operating rates maintained at low levels. Transportation restrictions in the Xinjiang region led to a tight supply of goods, and suppliers continued to support the market. Overall, the downstream industries saw an increase in production, leading to higher consumption of raw materials, effective inventory reduction, and a continuous rise in market prices.
Supply side: In terms of facilities, Guotai Xinhua and Lansen Tunhe have restarted, while Sichuan Yongying is under maintenance for catalyst replacement. The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry has increased but remains relatively low, with a moderate supply of goods. The positive impact on BDO supply has weakened.
Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Plants:
| Region | Unit Dynamics |
|---|---|
| Xinjiang Lanshantunhe | Phase I shut down on August 27, 2024. Phases II and III underwent a major inspection on July 31 and resumed operations on September 1, with load at 70-80%. |
| Xinjiang Meike | Phase III unit is shut down; Phases I, II, IV, and V units are operating steadily. |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | The 300,000-ton/year BDO unit is currently operating at around 70-80% capacity. |
| Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua | One unit is operating steadily; another unit was temporarily shut down due to boiler issues but has resumed stable operation after restarting on August 30. |
| Xinjiang Xinye | Phase I 60,000-ton unit and one 70,000-ton unit in Phase II are operating steadily; the other 70,000-ton unit in Phase II is scheduled to restart in mid-September. |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Operating relatively steadily. |
| Sichuan Tianhua | Phase I 25,000-ton/year and Phase II 60,000-ton units are operating steadily. |
Cost Perspective: Regarding calcium carbide, the price of its raw material, anthracite coal, continues to rise, strengthening cost support. Moreover, supply is tight, prompting calcium carbide producers to actively increase their procurement. As for methanol, prices have been trending upward with relative strength. With both the prices of the raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—on the rise, the cost outlook for BDO is favorably influenced.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, operating rates for downstream PTMEG and PBT have increased, leading to higher demand. The demand side for BDO is also influenced by relatively positive factors.
Outlook for the future, with demand continuing to outstrip supply and the industry still in a destocking phase, this supports the holding sentiment of suppliers. There is an expectation that market focus will continue to rise. Overall, BDO analysts predict that the BDO market in China may maintain a firm trend.
