September 4th news
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of ethanol in China has been adjusted to 5516 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.36% in the past three months and a year-on-year decline of 0.86%. The concentrated maintenance of ethanol production facilities has ended, leading to increased supply in some regions, while the supply continues to exceed demand.
Cost Perspective: From the cost perspective, the average national price of corn has risen slightly, with regional price trends varying. Corn prices in Northeast China remain stable, while corn prices in Henan have declined. The cost factors for ethanol are leaning toward positive influences.
Supply side, from the supply perspective, 4.24 million tons of annual processing capacity ethanol plants were shut down within the month. In August, China's ethanol production was 835,000 tons, up 28,700 tons from the previous month, with a price decrease of 3.56%. The cumulative production from January to August 2026 was 7.0051 million tons. The impact on the ethanol supply side is mixed.
On the demand side: On the downstream front, overall demand saw a slight increase, with total demand reaching 172,200 tons, up 10,000 tons month-on-month. China's consumption stood at 172,000 tons, also up 10,000 tons month-on-month, while export volume remained virtually unchanged at 2,000 tons. Looking at individual downstream sectors, traditional baijiu consumption continued to be sluggish; however, demand in the chemical downstream sector showed some improvement. Specifically, the ethyl acetate market saw the Yankuang plant resume production, while the plants operated by Hualu, Lianhong, and Mingde remain shut down. In the chemical industry, procurement is primarily driven by essential contractual needs. The demand for ethanol is benefiting from favorable factors.
Market Forecast: Before the holiday, downstream buyers have been stocking up intensively, driving up demand and prices. At the same time, freight rates have risen, further pushing up delivery prices. Ethanol analysts predict that the ethanol market is likely to continue its upward trend.
