August 31 news
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petcoke from local refineries in August first increased and then decreased, with an overall downward trend. The average price of medium-sulfur petcoke products from major local refineries in China was 3,245.75 CNY/ton on August 31, down from 3,310.75 CNY/ton on August 1, representing an overall decrease of 1.96%.
On the cost side: In August, international crude oil prices experienced wide fluctuations. At the beginning of the month, geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East temporarily subsided, causing oil prices to fall rapidly. However, during the middle and upper parts of the month, oil prices rebounded sharply. This was due to the official expiration of the 60-day memorandum of understanding on U.S.-Iranian conflict resolution, yet neither side expressed any intention to renew it. Negotiations completely broke down over disagreements regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz, dashing earlier market expectations of an easing of tensions. Later in the pricing period, as geopolitical factors eased, crude oil prices saw a slight decline. Overall, however, crude oil prices continued their upward trend.
Supply Side: In early August, some local refining units in China were still under maintenance, resulting in limited output of petroleum coke. Refineries maintained low inventory levels, leading to tight spot supply. As the maintenance of these local refining units gradually ended and operations resumed, the delayed coking operating rate increased in mid-to-late August, leading to a continuous increase in the supply of domestically produced petroleum coke. Additionally, with a concentration of imported coke arriving at ports and entering the market, the pressure on spot supply became increasingly evident. Moreover, the prices of petroleum coke from some refineries showed significant fluctuations with changes in specifications. The overall port inventory of imported petroleum coke in August decreased, and imported petroleum coke continued to follow an inventory clearance pattern at the ports.
Demand side: In August, prebaked anodes, as the largest consumer of petroleum coke, saw a decline in the benchmark procurement price in the Shandong region. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the demand for aluminum carbon products is expected to remain steady, with downstream players mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis. The operating rate of the anode material industry remained high, supporting the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke. Plans to increase the capacity of prebaked anodes may lead to an increase in the demand for petroleum coke.
Market Forecast: Currently, the operating rate of coking plants run by local refineries remains high, domestic petroleum coke supply is ample, and imported coke continues to arrive at ports, meaning overall supply pressure persists. Downstream demand for carbon products and pre-baked anodes remains rigid, with insufficient momentum for large-scale restocking. Fuel demand shows no significant increase. The upward revision of the benchmark procurement price for pre-baked anodes in September provides support for the petroleum coke market. It is expected that, in the short term, the petroleum coke market will likely remain volatile and consolidate.
