From Scale Expansion to Technology Premium: The Shifting Landscape of the Acrylic Market 2025-2026

December 25th, news

Review of Acrylic Price Trends in 2025

1. Clearly trending, with no effective rebound throughout the year:

The price fell steadily from 8,196 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1) to 5,900 CNY/ton by year-end (December 17), with a cumulative decline of 2,308 CNY/ton. In the chart, each node is lower than the previous one, forming a clear downward channel, indicating consistent bearish market expectations and ongoing selling pressure.

2. The price decline is widening quarter by quarter, accelerating its bottom-fishing in the second half of the year:

First half of the year (as of June 25): Prices fell from 8,196 to 7,009 CNY/ton, representing a price decrease of approximately 14.5%. The decline was relatively gradual.

In the second half of the year (after June 25): The pace of decline significantly accelerated, falling from 7,009 CNY/ton to 5,900 CNY/ton, with the price decrease expanding to approximately 16%. In particular, during the fourth quarter, the year-on-year price decline widened rapidly from -10.22% to -22.41%, reflecting an extremely pessimistic market sentiment.

The Market Logic Behind the Trend

This trend is a direct manifestation and quantitative proof of the “supply surplus” pressure mentioned in earlier analyses:

Supply pressure becomes the absolute dominant factor: The continuous decline in prices without any rebound indicates that the release of new production capacity is ongoing and overwhelming, such that any seasonal recovery in demand cannot compete with it.

The industry has entered a brutal phase of market cleansing: Prices have fallen below the cost threshold and are accelerating downward—a process in which the market uses price mechanisms to forcibly eliminate high-cost production capacity and prompt the industry’s supply and demand to re-establish equilibrium. The accelerated decline shown in the chart will likely be accompanied by reduced or halted production at some small and medium-sized enterprises.

Summary: The "shift from a tight balance to a full surplus" in the acrylic acid industry in 2025 is the most intuitive reflection. It confirms that the industry in China is undergoing intense supply-side adjustments.

Total Acrylic Capacity in 2025

As of the end of June 2025: China's total acrylic acid capacity has increased to 4,400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the addition of 320,000 tons of new capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the market expects an additional 740,000 tons of new planned capacity to be released.

Major New Capacity Projects and Their Distribution

The Core Impact of Acrylic Acid Imports and Exports on the Industry in 2025

Export Side: With China accounting for over half of global production capacity and Chinese prices plummeting by 2025, exports are crucial for alleviating the problem of overcapacity. However, global market demand remains weak, and the country faces intense competition from lower-cost production capacities in regions such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, significantly squeezing export profit margins.

Import Side: Although the overall volume may not be large, every ton of high-end acrylics imported—such as those used in photoresists and medical gels—represents a high-value market dominated by foreign capital. The import dependency on high-end products remains as high as over 70%, directly highlighting the urgency and untapped potential for China’s industrial upgrading.

2026 Acrylic Acid Development Core Directions in China

To escape the current predicament, the industry in China must shift from pursuing scale to high-quality development. Specifically, there are three major breakthrough directions:

1. Premiumization and “Technology Premium”

This is the core path to break out of low-level price wars and achieve excess profits in China.

Currently, high-end products such as medical-grade acrylic acid (purity ≥ 99.99%) can be sold at a price three times that of ordinary products, but only a few companies in China can produce them. The industry is shifting from "scale competition" to "technology premium" competition. In the future, there will be a need to focus on breakthroughs in cutting-edge areas such as electronic-grade acrylic acid monomers (used in semiconductor photoresists) and bio-based acrylic acid.

2. Greening of Processes and Cost Reduction

This is the foundation for enhancing cost competitiveness and achieving sustainable development in China.

Disruptive technologies such as “direct oxidation of propane to acrylic acid” offer significant advantages over traditional multi-step processes, including shorter process flows, lower investment requirements, and reduced costs—making them key development directions for the future. For example, the multi-billion-yuan acrylic acid industrial park invested in by Keyuan Holdings in Maoming, Guangdong, has adopted this globally leading green technology.

3. Industrial Chain Integration and Ecosystem Construction

This is crucial for leading enterprises in China to consolidate their advantages and enhance their risk resistance capabilities.

Leading enterprises can significantly reduce costs through integrated upstream and downstream layouts. For example, Satellite Chemical has achieved a self-sufficiency rate of over 95% for raw materials, with a per-ton cost 12% lower than the industry average. Top companies are building competitive barriers through "technological iteration + industrial chain integration," leading to a continuous increase in industry concentration. In the future, companies with full industrial chain collaboration capabilities will be more competitive.

In summary, 2025 is a turning point for the acrylic acid industry as it experiences growing pains. The sharp decline in prices is a direct reflection of the overcapacity issue. Looking ahead, the model of simply expanding capacity has reached its end. The future of the industry lies in technological innovation and value enhancement. Companies that successfully move toward "high-end" products, master "green technologies," and achieve "integration of the industrial chain" will be able to navigate through the cycles and take the lead in the next round of high-quality development in China.

2026 Acrylic Price Trend Forecast

1. Year-round price range:

The price in the mainstream market (high-grade products from East China) is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5,800 to 7,800 CNY per ton. The lower bound (around 5,800 CNY per ton) is firmly supported by the industry’s average cash-cost line. Once the price falls below this level, it will trigger further shutdowns of high-cost production capacity, thereby reducing supply.

Top end (around 7,800 CNY/ton): Strong resistance is formed by the suppression of excess capacity. Any rebound will trigger the release of existing capacity, resulting in weak upward pressure on prices.

2. Seasonal Trend:

First Half of the Year: A continuation of weak performance is expected. The downward momentum at the end of 2025, high inventory levels, and the off-season for demand—particularly in the architectural coatings sector—will all contribute to a situation where prices may test, or even briefly breach, the cost floor.

In the second half of the year, a minor corrective rebound may occur. The drivers could be: supply contraction due to capacity clearance below the cost line, moderate restocking during the traditional "golden nine, silver ten" peak demand season in China, or an unexpected strengthening of crude oil (propylene raw material) prices. However, the height and sustainability of the rebound will be very limited.

3. Core Impact Factors Analysis:

Primary Negative Factor: The fundamental contradiction lies in the mismatch between a total production capacity of up to 4.5 million tons in 2025 and sluggish demand. Although new capacity additions may slow down in 2026, it will still take time to digest the existing stock.

Exports: are key to easing excess pressure. If overseas demand recovers or the RMB exchange rate becomes favorable, an increase in exports will become the most important upward catalyst.

Premiumization: The price gap between standard acrylics and high-end specialty acrylics will continue to widen. Prices for products such as electronic-grade acrylics (which may remain in the range of 15,000–40,000 CNY per ton) will become completely decoupled from those of bulk commodities, depending on technological breakthroughs.

Summary: 2026 will be a "bottom-grinding year" for the acrylic acid commodity market in China, confirming the bottom and digesting excess capacity. Overall industry profitability will be at historically low levels. However, it will also be a "year of value discovery" for high-end products. Companies that can produce high-value specialty products will see their prices and profits completely independent of the industry's downturn cycle. Therefore, when observing 2026 prices, it is necessary to distinguish between the two distinctly different curves: the "commodity price index" and the "specialty product prices."