I. Market Overview
According to the latest data, as of July 2, 2026, the benchmark price of acrylic acid stood at 7,416.67 CNY per ton. Compared with the price of 7,683.33 CNY per ton on July 1 (June 30), prices continued to decline at the start of this week, with a cumulative monthly price decrease reaching 3.47%.
From the recent price trends, the market exhibits a clear characteristic of "resistant decline":
June 25–26: Prices plummeted rapidly from 8,250 CNY/ton to 7,950 CNY/ton, with the daily price decrease at one point approaching 3.64%.
June 27–28: The market briefly stabilized around the 7,950 CNY/ton mark, with the change rate remaining at 0.00% for two consecutive days, as it attempts to establish bottom support.
June 29-July 1: Support failed, and prices broke down again, falling from 7683.33 CNY/ton all the way to the current 7416.67 CNY/ton. On July 1 alone, the price decrease reached 3.47%, indicating that bearish forces still dominate the Chinese market.
II. Technical Analysis of Xianhuotong
Combining the moving average chart with position indicators, the current technical signals for acrylic are relatively weak.
1. Moving Average Pattern
Currently, the situation is in a typical “negative” zone. Although the 10-day moving average’s slope slowed down during the price consolidation period from June 27 to 28, as prices plunged again in early July, the 10-day moving average accelerated its downward divergence, confirming an expanding “negative” trend. This indicates that downward momentum is strengthening, and no clear signals of a halt or reversal have yet emerged in the short term.
2. 5 Price Levels
According to the data, the current price of acrylic acid is at a "low" level across all five time periods: 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days. It is only in the "one-year position" dimension that it is at a "moderately low" level. The comprehensive "low" evaluation indicates that the current price has broken through all support levels over the past three months, and the market is in an extremely weak bottom-probing phase. Although there is still a need for a rebound from a long-term perspective, the risk of continued downward momentum remains as long as the short- to medium-term trend has not reversed.
III. Fundamental Gameplay
This week, the most significant contradiction in the acrylic acid market in China is the drastic compression of profit margins for both upstream and downstream sectors.
Cost Side: The upstream raw material propylene has shown strong performance. On July 2, the benchmark price of propylene was 7,811.00 CNY/ton, up 5.40% from the beginning of the month. The firmness in raw material prices should, in theory, provide cost support for acrylic acid.
Despite the increase in costs, the price of acrylic acid has decreased by 3.47% within the month. This "scissors difference" phenomenon reflects extremely weak downstream demand, which is unable to absorb the cost increases. Production enterprises face significant profit compression and may even incur losses. In the supply-demand tug-of-war, the negative impact on the demand side completely outweighs the positive impact on the cost side.
4. Future Market Outlook
Overall, the acrylic acid market in China is currently in an awkward situation where "costs are unable to push up prices, and demand is clearly dragging down."
Short-term forecast: Given that the bearish crossover between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages continues to widen, and the price has just broken below the previous consolidation range, we expect the market to remain in a weak, volatile pattern or continue its downward momentum in the short term.
(Source: )
