Methanol Market Shows Narrow Fluctuations in China

February 9 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 2 to 9 (as of 10:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market fell from 2,223 CNY/ton to around 2,220 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.15% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 2.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.52%. The Chinese methanol market is weak, with companies still focusing on inventory clearance before the holiday, coupled with a weak macroeconomic environment, leading to a continued downward trend. As destocking gradually comes to an end, market transactions have become more subdued, with many downstream players withdrawing and adopting a wait-and-see approach.

As of the close on February 9th, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main contract for methanol futures 2605 opened at 2,236 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2,255 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2,227 CNY/ton. It closed at 2,231 CNY/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a price increase of 0.04%. The trading volume was 849,691, the open interest was 831,646, and the daily increase in open interest was 5,357.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of February 9, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Perspective: As the Spring Festival approaches, both coal supply and demand are weak, leading to a general decline in market trading activity and causing coal prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. The impact on costs is mixed, with both positive and negative effects.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: The profit margins of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and dimethyl ether enterprises have remained relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market is gradually winding down, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol is weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, Shenhua Xilaifeng plant maintenance; Pucheng Clean Energy facility resumed operations; overall, the recovery volume exceeded the loss volume, leading to an increase in production and a rise in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the international market, as of the close on February 6, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 322.5–323.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 106.5–107.5 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 296.5–297.5 per ton, down EUR 1 per ton.

Looking ahead, as the Spring Festival approaches and upstream inventory clearance and downstream stockpiling reach their final stages, the overall market sentiment is likely to weaken further. Methanol analysts expect that China’s spot methanol market will mainly experience consolidation and fluctuations.