Cost Easing and Weakening Year-End Demand Leave Acrylic Market Stuck in a Standoff

February 3 news

This week, the reason why the acrylic acid market can still report stable prices mainly relies on the "intention to maintain prices" by producers. As of February 3rd, the benchmark price for acrylic acid was 6,116.67 CNY per ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

1. Cost Side:

Propylene prices have been consolidating within a narrow range, and the most critical turning signal is the slight weakening on the cost side. The core logic that has been underpinning prices over the past few months—the “cost-driven” rationale—is now losing its effectiveness. As of February 3, the benchmark price for propylene stood at 6,391.00 CNY per ton, down 0.21% from the beginning of this month (6,404.33 CNY per ton).

2. Demand Side:

At the beginning of the week, a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see prevailed, directly highlighting the weakness on the demand side. It’s not that downstream demand has disappeared—it’s just that most players are either “waiting for prices to fall” or “purchasing only as needed.” This mindset has deprived the market of the “fuel” needed for price increases, resulting in sluggish trading activity. As the Spring Festival approaches, end-user factories are gradually shutting down for holidays—a seasonal headwind that’s impossible to reverse. The contraction in demand is shifting from an expectation to a reality, and this downward pressure will only grow stronger and stronger.

Market Situation:

The current "stability" is a fragile and weak balance. It is not a healthy stability characterized by strong supply and demand, but rather a temporary stalemate formed in a downward trend where sellers are unwilling to lower prices and buyers are unwilling to make purchases. Both parties are at an impasse over the critical point of "price," but as time moves towards the Spring Festival when demand is even weaker, the balance is quietly tilting.

Outlook for the Future:

In the short term (before the holiday): This stalemate—where supply exists but demand is absent—could persist for a few more days. However, if either side runs out of patience, the balance could be disrupted. Should a major manufacturer decide to “offer discounts to recover funds,” or if propylene prices continue to fall further, it could trigger a small, tentative round of price reductions.

After the holiday: The real direction will be chosen after the Spring Festival. At that time, two key points need to be observed: First, whether the pace of resumption of work and the intensity of restocking in the downstream sector can quickly activate demand; second, how much inventory pressure there is on upstream raw materials and factories. If the resumption of work does not meet expectations and inventories are high, the pressure after the holiday may be concentrated and released.

Conclusion: The current "stable operation" should be seen more as a stalemate platform or buffer phase in a downward channel rather than a signal of a trend reversal and stabilization. Under the dual influence of weakening costs and the off-season for demand, the risk of a market downturn is greater than the probability of an upward breakthrough.