Urea Market Trends in December Show Volatile Upward Movement

December 29th, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of December 29, the reference average price of urea in the Chinese market was 1732 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.76% from the reference average price of 1702 CNY/ton on December 1.

II. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market prices in China showed a mix of increases and decreases, with a general trend of fluctuating upward. In the first half of the month, the urea market prices in China saw a slight increase followed by a period of consolidation. The supply of urea in the Chinese market was abundant, and demand was relatively stable. Urea production remained high, and downstream demand was mainly for replenishing essential stocks, with steady follow-up demand. In the second half of the month, the urea market prices in China rose rapidly. Influenced by the information on urea tenders from India, the futures market for urea increased, leading to a rise in spot market prices. New orders in the urea market also increased. By the end of the month, prices had fallen back.

Market Conditions

As of December 29, the urea market prices in Shandong region are around 1670-1730 CNY/ton, in Hebei region around 1670-1730 CNY/ton, in Henan region around 1660-1720 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region around 1720-1750 CNY/ton.

As shown in the weekly K-line chart from September 29, 2024, to December 22, 2025, China's urea prices have experienced both rises and falls during this period. In December, urea prices in China saw relatively significant increases, with the largest price increase occurring in the week of December 15, at 1.46%.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the urea market trend has been weak and declining. Currently, the daily production of urea has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere is poor, and downstream purchases have slowed down, with caution being the main approach. Industrial and agricultural demand is moderate. It is expected that in the short term, urea prices in China will remain weak and consolidate.