Aniline Prices Start High and End Low in 2025, How Will It Play Out in 2026 in China?

December 29th News

I. Price Trends

In 2025, the Aniline market in China showed a trend of "high opening, low movement, low fluctuation, and periodic rebound." The average annual price was 9,375 CNY/ton, and the year-end average price was 7,945 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 15.25% throughout the year, with a fluctuation range of 8,000-9,400 CNY/ton.

II. Core driving factors behind price fluctuations:

Supply Side: The concentrated release of new production capacity in 2025 is the primary factor putting downward pressure on prices. The second-phase 360,000-ton-per-year aniline plant of Wanhua Fujian was commissioned on March 31. Although it initially operated at a low load, this has nonetheless had a significant impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the industry’s overall operating rate remains high, staying between 78% and 86%, meaning supply pressures persist.

Cost Side: The price fluctuations of pure benzene directly affect the cost of aniline. In 2025, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating between 5,300 and 7,900 CNY per ton, with an average price of 6,459 CNY per ton from January to September—a decrease of 22.26% compared to the 2024 average price. The substantial drop in pure benzene prices has created downward room for aniline prices, but it has also limited the extent to which aniline prices can rebound.

Demand Side: The weak demand for downstream MDI is the fundamental reason behind downward price pressure. Affected by the continued slump in the real estate market, demand for MDI in the building insulation and furniture sectors has declined. As a result, MDI utilization rates have fallen from their high levels at the beginning of the year to around 62%, directly impacting the demand for aniline.

Emergency Event: International incidents have had a pulse-like impact on prices. In the second quarter of 2025, an explosion at BASF’s Ludwigshafen plant caused aniline prices to temporarily rebound to USD 1,480 per ton, representing a price increase of 41%. In March, the Red Sea shipping crisis led to a 25% rise in aniline freight rates on Asia-Europe routes, boosting spot prices by 18%. Although these external events were relatively short-lived, they significantly amplified the magnitude of price fluctuations.

III. Market Outlook and Forecast for Aniline in 2026

Price Trend Forecast: Aniline prices are expected to fluctuate between 8,000 and 10,000 CNY per ton in 2026, with an average price slightly up by 5-8% compared to 2025. The main factors supporting this forecast are: First, the pace of capacity expansion is slowing down; in 2026, newly added capacity is projected to be only 25,000 tons (from the Ziguang Chemical project in Inner Mongolia), significantly lower than the 540,000 tons added in 2025. Second, cost support is strengthening— as crude oil prices stabilize and rebound, benzene prices are likely to recover, providing cost support for aniline prices. Third, demand is gradually recovering; as the real estate market bottoms out and stabilizes and downstream inventory replenishment demand begins to materialize, demand for key downstream products such as MDI is expected to stop declining and start picking up again.

Supply-Demand Pattern Forecast: In 2026, the supply-demand contradiction in China's Aniline market will ease but still face pressure. The annual production is expected to be around 4,200,000 tons, with demand at approximately 4,000,000 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of about 200,000 tons, which is a significant narrowing compared to the 350,000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, as outdated capacities gradually phase out and companies make more rational investments, the pace of capacity expansion will slow down significantly. On the demand side, driven by stable growth policies, downstream demand is expected to recover moderately.

Overall, the Chinese Aniline market in 2026 will exhibit a "stable and improving, with increasing differentiation" development trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the main factors affecting the Aniline market will still be concentrated on the changes in supply and demand and cost. The market price may show a trend of being weak initially and then strengthening, with the annual average price expected to slightly decrease compared to 2025. From the supply side, in 2026, Nanjing Chemical's 300,000 tons/year and Fujian Wanhua's 360,000 tons/year Aniline plants will be commissioned, which will drive an increase in Aniline supply. On the demand side, the growth rate of downstream MDI will slow down, but there will be an increase in demand for additives. The overall demand growth rate may be lower than the supply growth rate, and export variables will remain a key indicator affecting market prices.