This report is compiled based on the latest spot average price data as of October 9, 2026. The mean difference method shows that the current heavy soda ash is in a retracement (bullish) oscillation range, with prices at their lowest level in nearly 1 year. The downside is limited, and the high operation of upstream industrial salt supports the cost. The downstream demand is generally purchasing according to needs, with no significant bearish or bullish drivers. This is for reference by relevant industry participants in China.
I. Data Description
The latest available data for heavy soda ash in China is up to October 9, 2026. It is recommended to follow up with real-time data for the most current information.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Type of Difference | Value on October 9, 2026 | Value on October 8, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day difference (D5) | -0.85 | -1.14 | + |
| 10-day difference (D10) | -0.29 | -0.14 | - |
| 20-day difference (D20) | -0.42 | -0.43 | + |
III. Signal State Determination
The current three deviation change direction combination is (+, -, +), which belongs to a retest (bullish) signal.
4. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is range-bound (with a bullish bias). Reason: The direction of change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which fits the definition of a range-bound trend. The corresponding signal is a bullish retracement type, with no clear short-term trend of a one-sided rise or fall. Overall, the trend is slightly bullish.
V. Positional Space Reference
For heavy soda ash, prices across the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year timeframes all remain in the first tier—low levels, within the lowest 20% of the cycle—leaving limited room for further declines. Should supportive demand-side factors emerge, there is potential for a corrective rebound.
Sixth, Reference to the Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain in China
1. Upstream: The core raw material, industrial salt, is currently at a 1-year high in its price cycle, providing some support to the cost of soda ash. 2. Downstream: The current procurement of downstream products such as baking soda, sodium hexametaphosphate, and glass is mainly based on demand. There are no significant signs of increased or decreased demand, and the supply and demand are in a state of weak equilibrium.
VII. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VIII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
